tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-33667249496453424222024-03-19T23:23:38.217-07:00Technovation Talks"Dedicated to informing and educating technology professionals across a wide spectrum of IT topics."Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.comBlogger130125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-4083354206580591792017-01-28T11:09:00.000-08:002017-01-28T11:09:59.937-08:00E-learning, Twenty Years Later<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Once upon a time I was perched at the intersection of two career choices; 1) a path towards teaching and 2) a pragmatic exploitation of technology skills that we’re becoming ever more popular in the workplace. This personal nexus point occurred about 20 years in 1996. Anyone looking at my linkedin.com profile can guess which choice I made, but the story is a little more interesting than merely that of a techie who chose economic pragmatism over an academic career. Little did I know that my interest in teaching would lead me directly into the crucible of invention and innovation that has since changed the way almost everyone on the planet learns.</div>
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There are times when one realizes that he or she is the middle of something unique, something historical. I have had other experiences with which to measure that sense of recognition – for instance in 1987 when I was staying with friends in Argentina and witnessed an entire nation rise up to demonstrate support for their Democratically elected government against an attempted military coup – millions were marching in every city in the nation. The coup failed. That even was all the more significant given that Argentina had suffered under 40 years of Fascist rule until just a few years before. I tried to document it in my own way at the time but have since lost the photos I took and the notes I wrote down – what stayed with me was the sense of what true change looks like.</div>
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Fast forward a few years and I find myself studying a Masters in English Composition and Rhetoric with a concentration in TESOL (Teaching English as a Second Language). In the intervening years, I had taught English abroad as well as computer related courses and worked with web development among other things. I had both a practical and theoretical grounding in various education concepts & practices including everything from Instructional Design to Chomsky’s Transformational Grammar. All of that was interesting, but not earth-shaking per se. However, what seemed obvious at the time was that I was witnessing almost the exact moment that Education as we knew had reached a cross-roads. In 1995 and 1996, E-learning had more or less just been coined as a term and the initial preview of what was to come began to emerge. Now things like distance learning and CBTs had already been around for awhile (I had in fact helped produce video courses at community college TV station some years before), but the real game changer seemed to be the ubiquitous, global web platform & standards with the first generation of browsers like Netscape, Mosaic etc. With the web came a slew of other new technologies such as Learning Management Systems (LMSs) and collaborative meeting rooms and the beginnings of Social Networking.</div>
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In 1996, I faced a tough choice, while I felt very strongly about the importance of Education and considered it my most probable career path, I had some serious misgivings. While coming close to completing my Masters, I decided the best course would be to try to combine my academic interests with my love of technology and thus I proposed to build my Master’s thesis around emerging practice & methodology for extending E-learning into nearly every facet of traditional education. At that point, the decision was no longer in my hands – the academic committee at the graduate school I was attending rejected the proposal and in fact any thesis associated with the topic E-learning on the grounds that the topic and field were not mature enough and thus unworthy of serving as an appropriate thesis. I tried in vain to convince them otherwise; both in the context of the already significant scholarship dedicated to the topic (even in 1996), as well as in what seemed to me to be the obvious conclusion that even if the field were somewhat immature, it was all the more reason to explore and evolve it. One thing was clear – it was the future, whether the world was ready for it or not. Unsuccessful in my attempts to persuade them, I left the degree program (I got another Masters in Information Design later) and left teaching as a career to join the IT workforce. What’s more, I began looking for opportunities to help continue my original intent in helping to define what E-learning might become.</div>
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Over the next two years, I had three different projects where I worked as an IT trainer and courseware developer. This gave me both further grounding in instructional technique as well as a lot more exposure to key standards and technologies associated with E-learning. For example, my courseware projects involved creating courses on web application development – at precisely the same time that new web standards were being released by the W3C, including CSS, XML, XHTML, early forms of Javascript and the DOM. Then I got a contract at Cisco Systems and headed out to Silicon Valley. Mountain View and San Jose were quite shockingly different from Dayton, Ohio. The culture was vibrant, the Terminator was running for Governor and Silicon Valley was in the midst of the biggest boom anyone could recall – it was the age of Start-ups, IPOs and stock options - and paper millionaires (folks whose stock was valued in millions due to the massive speculative tech bubble) were literally everywhere. It was also one of the most innovative times in American history; there was an expectation that not only were things going to change for everyone, but that change would be defined in this valley.</div>
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Cisco was right in the middle of that milieu. When I arrived, the superstar CEO John Chambers had just made the announcement that E-learning was the next Internet Killer app. I even saw him walking around the giant Cisco campus a few times – I recognized him from the many magazine covers he had graced in the months beforehand. Cisco wanted to make good on Mr. Chamber’s promise and had assembled a large team of very talented people across several groups to help redefine education for the 21st Century. They tackled it from multiple perspectives, including the Cisco Academies as well as the Field E-learning Connection, a project that I became involved with. This Cisco team became a focal point for a wider group of companies, universities and institutes that began defining what next generation E-learning solutions would look like. Like all great changes though, this one was borne in the midst of some fascinating controversies and I found myself deeply involved in them.</div>
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Essentially, there were two-world views within the E-learning camp (the camp being an initial set of most self proclaimed experts and tech evangelists). While the group agreed on the shared premise that E-learning would be become pervasive across all aspects of society (e.g. fulfilling the promise of becoming the Internet’s Killer app), they disagreed what it would or should look like. The first group, who were more influential at the time, definitely had a more academic perspective and felt that Learning should adhere to fairly rigid standards and instructional design expectations. The second group (and I soon found myself within that camp), believed that E-Learning was to some extent an outgrowth of the technologies that made them possible and thus offered new opportunities to approach education in general that might prove more effective than the traditional doctrines (some of which actually date to Roman times).</div>
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This contest manifested itself in a number of ways over time, but one of the more specific examples of the battles that raged within it was the notion of Learning Objects and the delivery systems that would be used to serve them – Learning Management Systems (LMSs). The core E-learning industry was rallying around the LMS as the primary commercial Learning solution and the Learning Object standard that began driving the industry was something called SCORM (which had its origins in ISD, CBTs and the DoD). The basic idea behind a Learning Object was solid enough and seemed to conform with other emerging standards like XML – a Learning Object represented a modular, self-contained portion of a larger set of objects which be configured as needed into courses or curricula. However, this was around 2000, and the architecture behind the standard moved learning content development towards greater complexity which turned led to a higher cost per hour of content created.</div>
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Those of us on the other side of the argument certainly saw the value of SCORM based systems and content, but we had a wider view of what learning content was and how it could be delivered and managed. For about two and half years I continued participating in the debate; in the middle of which the Tech Wreck happened and I left the Silicon Valley and headed back to the Miami Valley. During these years I continued to fight for my vision of what E-learning could look like, through articles and an online community called Learning Leaders. For me it wasn’t just about business or winning a debate, the philosophical contest was very personal – to me this seemingly technical question held within it a much larger question regarding the nature of all education.</div>
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In the early 2000’s, after the tech wreck, the E-learning market nearly disappeared, just barely holding on. Then during the mid-2000’s things started to pick up again as mobile technology, portals and social networking become more prevalent. It was also around this time that learning delivery systems become more flexible and began to be adopted on an institutional scale – then quickly – almost overnight it seemed, E-learning was everywhere. Every college, every tech school and even K-12 education began hosting a myriad of Learning Technologies. Business models began changing and yet the big question was still not being addressed. The question hinted at in the dichotomy between rigid or flexible Learning Objects could be characterized this way when viewed in a larger context – should Education be flexible and learner focused or rigid and expert-driven? This is a big question – one that came up quite a lot in the recent 2016 Election although perhaps many didn’t see the connection. Essentially, anyone who was making comparisons with the Finnish Education system versus standardized assessments (a recent trend in the US), was tapping into the very same controversy. It’s a fascinating question, one that spans both personal motivation as well as the mechanisms for learning delivery (e.g. technology).</div>
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Over the past seven years in particular, the free market seems to have been moving more towards one side of this conflict than the other. Despite there still being a very rigid focus on standardized assessments in traditional environments, corporations and consumers who have been given the opportunity to choose informal or dynamic learning options versus traditional instructional design driven offerings have overwhelming moved to take advantage of informal learning. If you’re reading this on linkedin.com you can see this right now by clicking on the Learning menu item at the top of the screen or perhaps you’ve had a chance to experience the Kahn Academy or any number of similar sites. It’s been a long time coming, but we’re finally getting close to point where personal learning solutions with access to unlimited content and the ability to dynamically define one’s own courses and education paths will become ubiquitous. I think the conclusion to this story could be characterized this way – in E-learning the medium has become the message in that the medium has given us an excuse and a freedom to view Education in an entirely different way. I feel privileged to still be around to see how this field has evolved moving ever closer to its true potential and even more privileged to have been involved in helping to define what it might or ought to look like. And that’s one of the really cool things about working in IT, because believe it or not, anyone anywhere has given the opportunity to contribute those sorts of ideas and innovation and as a result, change the world, one step at a time. I think I made the right choice…</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Copyright 2017, Stephen Lahanas</em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-50326167145872737522017-01-27T13:04:00.001-08:002017-01-27T13:04:53.807-08:00A New Framework for Knowledge Management<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Several weeks ago I wrote two posts on the topic of Knowledge Management (KM):</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://technovation-talks.blogspot.com/2017/01/whatever-happened-to-knowledge.html" target="_blank">Whatever happened to Knowledge Management</a></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://technovation-talks.blogspot.com/2017/01/redefining-knowledge-management.html" target="_blank">Redefining Knowledge Management</a></li>
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This post represents the third in this series and tackles what a new framework for Knowledge Management might look like.</div>
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At the highest level, the Framework that I’m proposing for KM acknowledges several new technologies that weren’t readily available back when the notion of KM was first promoted within IT. The Framework also clearly acknowledges that KM is part of a larger ecosystem of related but separate technologies that cooperate to achieve a variety of Knowledge-related goals. Those goals could be characterized in the following manner:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The capture of insights on multiple levels, e.g. Individual, Organizational and Community. In this context, Community represents a community of practice (probably global in nature) but could also be a market of some sort.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ability to both define knowledge expectations as well to discover hidden knowledge.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Support the assimilation of source information within “levels of context” (e.g. personal, organizational and community).</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ability to capture and reuse Knowledge Relationships & Learning Paths (I’ll describe these in more detail in a bit). This particular goal goes to the heart of one of the original value propositions behind KM in the old days – the idea that knowledge capital ought to be captured in a fashion that allows it to be reused such that if individual knowledge holders were to leave the organization it wouldn’t suffer a true “Brain Drain.”</li>
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I wanted to briefly explain what I meant by “Learning Paths” and “Knowledge Relationships.” Learning Paths are more or less Dynamic Curricula, in other words self-defining paths that traverse specific learning topics in the context of both individual and organizational learning. Let’s say you have access to 1,000 learning resources and choose to build your own learning program using say 20 of them to learn (for the sake of argument) Node.js. The chosen topics and their sequence can become a learning path which could be reused by other individuals or the organization as a whole. A Knowledge Relationship on the other hand is a little more complicated because it can be manifested in more than one way. A Knowledge Relationship could be as simple as terms combined through metadata, or terms listed within a shared taxonomy or as complex as a SQL query or defined relationships using RDF. Knowledge Relationships is an area where the initial promise of Semantic technology has fallen a bit short of expectations but will likely continue to improve in the coming years</div>
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The most immediate realization when considering both the proposed framework and its potential goals is the fact that there isn’t now nor is there likely to be one tool that accomplishes all of what we consider to be part of a larger KM process. Maybe someday this will change, but for the foreseeable future, establishing and taking advantage of KM within an organization will require a mix of tools (many of which are likely already in place). Here is a conceptual view of the proposed framework:</div>
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<img src="https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/AAEAAQAAAAAAAAemAAAAJDU5NjAxYjM1LTVhNjgtNGZlMi05YzBkLTA3NWQ1M2UwZTYzOQ.png" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 744px;" /></div>
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<br /></div>
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There are several principles associated with this proposed KM Framework:</div>
<ol style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The idea that learning drives knowledge assimilation</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The idea that analytics drive discovery and that discovery also drives knowledge assimilation</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The idea that AI or AT can make both Learning & Discovery more effective</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Idea that AI or AT can empower Search capabilities in new ways and that Search drives both Analytics and knowledge discovery</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The idea that knowledge can be layered up from the individual to the community level, thus supporting a variety of collaborative knowledge capture and assimilation capabilities </li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The idea that underlying all these knowledge layers can reside a defined identity – this can take the shape of shared semantics, business rules and more</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The idea that the source information (content, databases etc.) can be acted upon simultaneously from several related processes to produce meaningful insights which in turn can be captured and built upon</li>
</ol>
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In many ways, I think this type of a framework is actually preferable to dependence on single class of tools in that it has a certain flexibility more or less built in. As we’ve witnessed over the past decade, there have been not one but many disruptive new technologies which can be applied to Knowledge Management including but not limited to Mobile technology, AI and Big Data. There are likely several more trends waiting on the wings that could enhance or otherwise contribute to KM in the future. This type of framework can easily accommodate any such advances. </div>
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I will write at least one more follow-up post on this theme and in that article will explore what a real-world next generation KM process and architecture might look like within a typical enterprise and how it might be exploited in a variety of real-world scenarios.</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Copyright 2017, Stephen Lahanas</em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-1730537578093687292017-01-09T12:57:00.000-08:002017-01-09T12:57:30.010-08:00Politics will Never Be The Same: Revelations & Mysteries from the Intelligence Report on Russian Hacking<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
A declassified version of the combined Intelligence Report on Russian Hacking of the 2016 Election was released on Friday, just after the classified version of the briefing, (Background to “Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections”: The Analytic Process and Cyber Incident Attribution), was presented to President-Elect Trump. This report appears to be the final deliverable associated with President Obama’s request made several weeks after the election to consolidate findings related to Russian hacking during the election. This report follows a release about week ago of a more detailed or specific report related to the larger hacking campaign; the Grizzly Steppe analysis. I review the Grizzly Steppe findings last week and I had hoped there would be a follow-up report and thankfully we’ve finally gotten it.</div>
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First, I’d like to commend the Obama administration and the Intelligence Community for doing what is overall a fairly decent job of tackling what is a complex and somewhat explosive issue. Perhaps the most immediate result of the release on Friday was the distinct change in tone coming from our President Elect on the subject – while he is still downplaying the significance of the Russian interference with the 2016 election process – he is no longer denying that it occurred. </div>
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The final report itself includes a number of interesting revelations, but also still contains a few too many mysteries for my tastes and I’ll cover both of these perspectives in the remainder of this post. It is also important to acknowledge that there obviously must be more tangible evidence within the classified version of the report, but whether any of those elements may be declassified later remains to be seen.</div>
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<strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Revelations Include:</strong></div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An acknowledgement that both major political parties were attacked, but that only stolen information was only leaked from the Democratic Party hacks.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">That there seems to be some level of disagreement between the FBI, CIA and NSA on conclusions regarding the intent of the attacks, although there is a general consensus.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Intelligence Community has taken the time to give at least a general sense of how their analytic process works, including the all-important issue of how attack attribution is assigned / determined.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There was an acknowledgement that various election related organizations were compromised, including boards of election, although the report emphasizes that no vote tallying machines were involved, I’ll return to this point a bit later.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There is a strong focus on the multi-faceted and coordinated nature of the activities, which extended beyond hacking to include manipulation of public perception through 21st century variations of propaganda techniques utilizing a variety of technologies, including Social Media and cable networks such as RT (Russia Today).</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The entire campaign was personally mandated, approved by Vladimir Putin with the expectation on his part that Trump would likely be more favorable to Russian policy objectives than Clinton. When it was looking like Clinton would win, the Russians launched a messaging campaign questioning whether the election was rigged if Clinton won (they were also preparing a Twitter campaign called #DemocracyRIP the night of the election). </li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU), used a persona called ‘Guccifer 2.0’ to leak DNC emails onto the Internet.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">RT (Russia Today Television), also actively coordinated with Wiki-leaks on the release of Democratic Party emails.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The 2016 Election activities represent a significant escalation of Russian Intelligence activities against the US, reaching levels not seen since the Cold War and perhaps surpassing those. This new level of interference may be expected to be the new normal, especially given the success enjoyed in the US and other similar outcomes such as BRexit, where Russia is seeking to destabilize Western Liberal democracies.</li>
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<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<strong style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Mysteries That Remain</strong></div>
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While there were some interesting revelations, many questions remain unanswered; including but not limited to the following:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There is still no clear explanation of how the US government is safeguarding or not – the election-related systems and processes across the country. I discussed this in some length on my post on voting integrity, but the bottom line from the latest report is that it seems as though there really isn’t any coherent or national strategy for how to deal with this. In the report, while the Intelligence Agencies acknowledge that some voting organizations were compromised they also explain that the voting systems themselves weren’t. But that begs the question, how do they really know that? How many voting systems were audited either during or after the election? Nobody knows and it wasn’t disclosed in the report.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Related to the above point, take a look at this excerpt from an article on the attempted recount in Michigan<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">: “</em><a href="http://heavy.com/news/2016/12/michigan-recount-results-day-1-update-missing-ballots-margin-laws-totals-detroit-ruling-update-wayne-county-rules/" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">According to the newspaper, officials “couldn’t reconcile vote totals for 610 of 1,680 precincts”</em></a><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"> during last month’s countywide canvass of Election Day returns, adding that most are in Clinton stronghold Detroit, “where the number of ballots in precinct poll books did not match those of voting machine printout reports in 59 percent of precincts, 392 of 662.” </em>Trump won Michigan by only 10,000 votes.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Friday’s Intelligence Report references the Department of Homeland Security in relation to the compromises or attacks on election boards, but doesn’t explain what part of DHS collected that information or who if anyone is actually responsible for safeguarding election systems. There is no discussion of the audit processes that may or may not be in place and what those audits are based upon. </li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There is no discussion as to what an appropriate response could be or ought to be – in other words – it’s an analytic assessment without any policy implications. This, in my opinion, is a big gap in what should have been included in the final report. Making this information declassified and initiating a dialog about what happened is of course valuable, but what are we to make of it? How does the United States intend to respond to these types of events in the future if North Korea, Iran, Russia, China or any other nation decides that it wants to manipulate our political or economic processes to their advantage? We surely can’t expect to just document it, there needs to be a discussion of appropriate levels of response – a policy discussion – and this is needed primarily so we don’t make radical decisions in a haste.</li>
</ul>
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In the title of this post, I’ve claimed that Politics will never be the same after the 2016 election - I firmly believe that. I think that this election has changed how politics will operate for decades to come, both here and abroad. I also don’t think that the US has fully assimilated the impact of what has really happened here yet. There will likely be countless papers, books and courses developed to explore the subject in greater depth over the coming years, but I also fear that the US has somehow lost the initiative in the midst of all of this. The idea that other nations or international actors have used technologies we’ve developed against us in this fashion is quite disturbing; all the moreso given that this just seems to be the start of an merging trend.</div>
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Here are the other election-related posts I’ve written since the election:</div>
<ol style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-technology-defined-2016-election-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">How Technology Defined the 2016 Election</a></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technology-2016-election-part-2-voting-integrity-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Technology & the 2016 Election Part 2: Voting Integrity</a></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technology-election-2016-part-3-failure-data-science-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Technology & Election 2016 part 3 – The Failure of Data Science?</a></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technology-2016-election-part-4-new-age-political-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Technology & The 2016 Election part 4: A New Age for Political Campaigning</a></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technology-2016-election-part-5-voter-beware-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Technology & The 2016 Election part 5: Voter Beware</a></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-principles-cyber-warfare-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">The 5 Principles of Cyber Warfare</a></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-we-just-learned-grizzly-steppe-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">What We Just Learned about Grizzly Steppe</a></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/cyber-security-predictions-2017-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Cyber Security Predictions for 2017</a></li>
</ol>
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Copyright 2017, Stephen Lahanas</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-49489808867509642162017-01-04T07:24:00.002-08:002017-01-04T07:24:27.393-08:00Redefining Knowledge Management<div class="MsoNormal">
Earlier this week I asked the question; “whatever happened
to Knowledge Management?” The bottom line answer to that question is that
perhaps the reason this once emerging field within IT has seemingly disappeared
is due to the fact that it was never properly defined in the first place. This
follow-up post is dedicated to examining the philosophical question more
closely and trying to draw some clearer distinctions between Information, Data
and Knowledge Management. This examination in turn will then support another
follow-up post where I’ll attempt to characterize what a more succinct Knowledge
Management framework might look like.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD3Bk2qNHhYzPKlK4MgV0MPfgGI9JFGiRxMe_KlpKMaTbc3x4gcjUIZKThtzFx668vd8DnmFucDygC1Ww-9ofeYfo46Qn-_phha5zWcJZPxHy13riVSoiXXquZHxN-xhyphenhyphenRSQJNrkcF3SQ/s1600/screens.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD3Bk2qNHhYzPKlK4MgV0MPfgGI9JFGiRxMe_KlpKMaTbc3x4gcjUIZKThtzFx668vd8DnmFucDygC1Ww-9ofeYfo46Qn-_phha5zWcJZPxHy13riVSoiXXquZHxN-xhyphenhyphenRSQJNrkcF3SQ/s400/screens.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Before I start, I’ll try to give some rationale as to why
this ought to matter. Just because Knowledge Management wasn’t properly defined
before and has largely dropped off the map within IT, doesn’t mean that it
isn’t needed. There most definitely needs to be something that transcends the
practice of Data Management – but before we go too deep here, let’s take a
another stab at defining some of terms we’re referring to…<o:p></o:p></div>
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<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Information Management</i>
– This has been a catch-all term for quite some time now. Information
Management could be viewed synonymously with Information Technology and thus
represents an aggregate of many non-related IT technologies. There is no
unifying expectation behind this term nor is it necessarily even directed at
data per se. The best way to describe Information Management might be as the
top level of the Taxonomy – the superset into which all other IT-related
practice should fit. </blockquote>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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<i><br /></i></div>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>Data Management (DM)</i>
– As I alluded to in the previous post, Data Management is much more focused on
the operational aspects of a variety of directly and indirectly related technologies.
The DMBOK (the Data Management Body of Knowledge) has taken pains to classify
this more precisely through a fairly wide-ranging taxonomy, covering everything
from Data Architecture & Governance to Metadata Management. Perhaps the one
common denominator across all of these areas is the expectation all of the
capability is either resident upon or associated with systems that house and manage
data. This includes both structured and unstructured data. The DMBOK also
addresses the lifecycle aspect of those capabilities, which is why it includes
Data Architecture, Development and Governance. </blockquote>
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<o:p></o:p></div>
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If we look at these two definitions again, despite the
likelihood of some overlap with Business Intelligence or Analytics, we might
consider these terms bookends enclosing Knowledge Management, with Information Management
being the top-level umbrella for all IT capability and Data Management being
the foundation upon which KM capability is derived. <o:p></o:p></div>
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So that brings us back to the question, what makes Knowledge
Management different than the lower-level Data Management capability
categories? This of course requires us to consider the difference between
information / data and knowledge. An analogy might help to illustrate the
question better; one of my favorite history reads is Shelby Foote’s <i>History of the Civil War</i>. When writing
this 3 volume masterpiece, Foote spent years examining the complete archives of
official records North & South – hundreds or perhaps thousands of volumes.
He synthesized all of that into a somewhat concise timeline (concise being a
relative term here in that each of the volumes is around 700 pages long) and
was able to both educate us and tell an extremely complex story in what appears
to be a very logical fashion. In this analogy, the historical archives
represent data, collected from various sources during the war and the resulting
book utilized an analytic process to transform a large quantity of source
information into a more compact set of Civil War Knowledge. By that analogy,
then I’m insinuating that KM is both a process and product – one that rests
above another foundation. Knowledge Management then must necessarily be
concerned as a field or practice with both the transformative creation of
Knowledge (from source data or information) as well as its effective
dissemination, application or exploitation. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Let’s examine now what the key characteristics that
Knowledge Management ought to consist of:<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-top: 6.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The
ability to aggregate source data and add value to it. As mentioned previously,
this is a very near approximation to the practices of BI, Analytics and perhaps
even Data Science. An open question here might whether we’d consider a Data
Warehouse or Data Lake a knowledge source or a data source. I tend to think of
them as the latter. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-top: 6.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->2.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The
ability to extend individual analysis to collective analysis and assimilation.
This is an important consideration stemming from the observation that Knowledge
in general has always been considered more of a collective than an individual
enterprise. While individuals may attain, create or otherwise possess
knowledge, knowledge is not bound by those individuals and indeed if it is kept
secret to some extent it no longer qualifies as knowledge in the traditional
sense of the term. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-top: 6.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->3.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The
ability to collect information from many sources and not just aggregate it, but
integrate it in meaningful ways. Data Integration is also included in the
DMBOK, but again it may be construed to have a more operational focus in that
context. For example, the focus in data management integration may be more
about interoperability whereas with KM the focus is directed more towards
answering complex questions. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-top: 6.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->4.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The
ability to derive new meaning from existing source information. This can occur
with Data Science and perhaps Analytics as well, and I tend to think that those
practices fit better within the realm of KM than DM. Again, the distinction
from DM here may be the expectations associated with the analysis – the idea
being that each organization eventually develops its own unique perspective –
both of itself and of its industry. That perspective is based on both
experiential (a posteriori) and defined knowledge (a priori) synthesized from
available sources and assimilated based on filters or needs unique to the
organization.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-top: 6.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; text-indent: -.25in;">
<!--[if !supportLists]-->5.<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span><!--[endif]-->The
ability to harness Artificial Thought or Intelligence to add further value and
perspective to source information. This is where Knowledge Management merges
with other topics I’ve been discussing recently – it is also the area of
greatest potential for KM. And necessarily, this combination implies that AI or
AT belong as part of KM – perhaps the most important part as this is we might
expect the greatest value add to occur. One sticky question that this
combination raises though is the notion as to whether machine Thought or
Intelligence can add enough value to turn data into Knowledge, my feeling is
that the answer here is a qualified yes – qualified because the expectations
driving that transformation are still pretty much derived from humans. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Back in the old days of the early 2000’s, there was a flurry
of debate back and forth between the relative value or application of OLAP
versus OLTP within the Analytics realm. That debate has largely subsided, but
it provided us with a partial preview of the differences between DM & KM in
general. If we were to distill those differences into a single thought, it
might be this – Knowledge Management extends us beyond ordinary operational
concerns and begins to imply some level of organizational awareness. As such,
it clearly builds upon the lower tiered architectures to do more – just what
can be done has hardly been tested yet. Also, in the early 2000’s there were
early efforts in the military realm to create Common Operating Pictures or Data
Fusion Centers. These have since evolved some and become particularly important
in the context of Cyber Security. Here too, Knowledge Management is a more fitting
description of what we’re trying to achieve – in this case the synthesis of
potentially billions of data sources to discover hidden patterns. Some might
think this is actually a discussion of Big Data – but it really isn’t. Big Data
belongs squarely within the realm of Data Management as it merely another data
management platform with little if any expectation as to how that data might be
transformed into something else (despite all of the hype to the contrary). <o:p></o:p></div>
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We’ll wrap up this post in the series with an updated
definition for Knowledge Management:<o:p></o:p></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-left: .5in;">
Knowledge Management (KM) is a
field of practice within Information Management that builds upon a foundation
provided by Data Management capabilities. KM adds value to source information in
both a collective and subjective manner, helping to create unique
organizational perspectives and insights through assimilation of source data
into directed or targeted types of knowledge. <o:p></o:p></div>
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In my next post in this series, I will explore the
architectural boundaries for the next generation of Knowledge Management
capabilities. <o:p></o:p></div>
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<i>Copyright 2017,
Stephen Lahanas<o:p></o:p></i></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-47858782160857892702017-01-02T09:31:00.003-08:002017-01-02T09:31:51.226-08:00Cyber Security Predictions for 2017<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
2016 was a big year in the annals of Cyber Security, and 2017 promises to eclipse it. While the drama of the election has largely subsided, the after-effect of the DNC attack and related Russian hacks is still building steam. President-elect Trump hinted this weekend that he had special information which he will share later this week, which in all honesty may tend to grow the controversy rather than silence it. The election hacking was not by any means the whole Cyber Security story for 2016 – but it did highlight that the stakes for Cyber security are slowly but steadily escalating. So what can we expect for this year?</div>
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I’m going to make ten predictions for what may happen in 2017 in the field of Cyber Security. These prognostications are not made with any unusual knowledge but rather through examination of previous trends and logical extrapolation of where those are likely to lead us to.</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 1</em> – The situation relating to Fake news will shortly lead to various types of Internet self-censorship. This may involve techniques such as badges for legitimate news outlets which will then trigger innovation on the part of attackers in attempts to mimic them.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 2</em> – Cyber-attacks will play a significant role in one or more world conflicts. We are getting close to the point where a Cyber Attack alone might be tip the balance in some of these conflicts.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 3</em> – President-elect Trump will eventually get on the same page with the US Intelligence Community in regards to Cyber Security, but it will take a number of months and several high profile incidents to turn him around.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 4</em> – The cost of Cyber Crime will reach an all-time high; 2017 will mark the first year that Cyber Crime takes out one or more major financial institutions (causing damage to operations or reputation so severe that it forces closure).</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 5</em> – Two-factor authentication will be more or less forced into becoming the primary way of logging into most online services.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 6 </em>– Related to the above, password management as we know it (or have known it) will begin changing drastically. Applications will be provided that assign better passwords and password management apps (vaults) will become much more common. This always been the weakest link in security.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 7 </em>– 2017 will be the worst year yet for the hacking of personal data. The techniques for obtaining such data have gotten ever-more effective yet most organizations still don’t know what all sensitive data they possess. It’s a formula for disaster.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 8 </em>– 2017 will likely see a greater degree of integration between Cyber and traditional military and intelligence forces and not just in the US. One area of particular concern will be Cyber vulnerabilities within various traditional warfighting technologies.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 9</em> – While there will be continued discussion regarding the after-effects of the Russian election hacks, there will be little if any effort this year to safeguard American voting systems or processes.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Prediction 10 </em>– 2017 will likely become the year of our first Cyber Demonstrations. So, what is a Cyber Demonstration? Essentially, it is a demonstration of power – some sort of disruption that is likely accompanied by a political message. We haven’t had too many of these outside the context of Wiki-leaks or the election. However, I have a feeling that this type of activity may become more common relatively soon.</li>
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I don’t think any of these predictions are particularly surprising – but then again surprises are hard to predict, so we’ll have to check back at the end of the year and see what we missed…</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Copyright 2017, Stephen Lahanas</em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-56505454801685494312017-01-01T08:53:00.000-08:002017-01-01T08:53:33.132-08:00Whatever Happened to Knowledge Management?<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Information Technology is a dynamic field, one often driven by buzzwords and fleeting trends. Sometimes these trends continue for decades, other times they fade somewhat quickly. One trend that experienced that fate seems to be Knowledge Management (KM). I recall first hearing about it in the early 2000’s and at that time it seemed to encompass several classes of subordinate technologies including but not limited to the following:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Document Management</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Content Management</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Search technology (various)</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Business Intelligence (A.K.A. Decision Support or Analytics)</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Metadata Management</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Learning Management</li>
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It also tended to include more specialized tools such as knowledgebases or FAQ generators and it potentially seemed to include more integrative content-focused technologies such as Wikis. For a time KM seemed poised to also include a wide range of Semantic technologies as well. However, in the last two years or so in particular, the term Knowledge Management has seemingly dropped off of the map. I was wondering to myself why this may have happened and whether anything in particular had replaced it.</div>
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To be sure, there are a couple of related trends that have dominated the IT landscape in the past two or three years; the most significant of those being Data Science & Big Data. However, neither of these seems to fulfill the role KM was being groomed for over the previous decade. In fact, in some ways these more recent trends have become much less specific in regards to their expectations or scope (which has actually become a problem for both of them). This situation may actually help to explain what happened to Knowledge Management - perhaps the original scope was too expansive? But was it just a scope issue?</div>
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I want return again to the core or implied premise associated with Knowledge Management, that there ought to be some sort of enterprise-wide ability to help unify all of these knowledge related functions or processes and resources. The problem with this premise is related to the scope, in that there isn’t one product group of technologies associated with it, but rather a fairly large set of technologies – some of them not closely related at all other than in a philosophical sense – in other words that they could be construed as part of a larger knowledge ecosystem. So, we seem to be missing an industry impetus, but we also seem to be lacking any sort of agreed upon knowledge process or framework that would necessarily help to tie all of these diverse technologies together. This latter problem takes us deep into the heart of the larger philosophical question which KM seemed to be begging – e.g., what is the difference between information and knowledge? That isn’t an easy question to answer – and in some sense parallels my recent discussion on Artificial Intelligence versus Artificial Thought. In fact, AI could even be considered as part of KM depending on how you look at it.</div>
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So back to the tough question, what makes data or information become knowledge? Is that dependent on adding value to the data or information though specific types of processes or is it merely in the integration and analysis of such source data that the source transcends itself to become knowledge? Or is knowledge only something we can consider in a collective sense; with the sum total of all data assets being knowledge potential of some sort? These types of questions may have been raised during the years that KM was discussed actively but I think never properly answered.</div>
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You might have noticed from my initial list of related technologies that I seemed to have left out Data Management or Information Management. Either of those could potentially be considered to be part of a knowledge management framework – however the reason I left them out is that for those fields, there is a much better operational understanding of how those type of technologies work. In fact, the view from with one of these areas, Data Management overlaps quite a bit with some of what I’ve attributed to Knowledge Management (one need only look at the DMBOK to see this illustrated). Thus Data Management as a trend has continued (for decades now), primarily concerned with operational maintenance of a number of unrelated technologies without the implied necessity to integrate it all into something transcendent across the enterprise.</div>
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What if we did wish to settle the deeper question though, regarding the differing expectations between operational management of source data and knowledge exploitation? It is now 2017, are we in a position to define an integrative knowledge framework and if so what would the philosophical foundation consist of? Moreover, would coming up with this type of framework help to redeem the dimming trends of Big Data and Data Science? I think it’s worth trying to answer the question and also worth taking a shot at defining the missing knowledge framework. I will tackle both parts of this problem in two upcoming posts…</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas</em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-28941725923952452452016-12-31T11:01:00.000-08:002016-12-31T11:01:50.274-08:00What We Just Learned about Grizzly Steppe<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The Obama administration announced yesterday that sanctions were being placed on Russia in retaliation for the <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technology-2016-election-part-2-voting-integrity-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">2016 Election Hacking scandal</a>. Shortly after that announcement, a Joint Analysis Report (JAR) was released providing a description of the nature of the Cyber attacks. It's still not clear if this report (<a href="http://www.scribd.com/document/335307386/JAR-16-20296" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">released to scribd.com</a>) is the complete intelligence report that the President had requested some weeks back or one perhaps one of several. What is clear however, is that the level of detail is perhaps more granular than expected, but the scope seems to be narrower than it could have been.</div>
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSgR1P04epZrK0ZXpOMJy3U9FrBCh-qE-oGLGWNw993QT2AVvkGUlYjSXJ2swiHOg0tsKEMc9DicnxZzDuTl-iNkJgknfOfK0EZqw7Yt6Q8TnUorpX19IiLBRpHtxsjnt4s8FbXdwuQm0/s1600/GRizzly.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhSgR1P04epZrK0ZXpOMJy3U9FrBCh-qE-oGLGWNw993QT2AVvkGUlYjSXJ2swiHOg0tsKEMc9DicnxZzDuTl-iNkJgknfOfK0EZqw7Yt6Q8TnUorpX19IiLBRpHtxsjnt4s8FbXdwuQm0/s640/GRizzly.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Architectural representation of the Election Hacks from FBI Report: JAR-16-20296</td></tr>
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So what did we learn from the document? Here are a few highlights:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We have a relatively straightforward diagrammatic view of how the attacks occurred (I've placed an example of this in the post image)</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We've been given a glimpse into the nature of the Russian Intelligence Service (RIS), but a limited one. Approximately two dozen names are listed as being associated with the RIS, but it's not clear if all these are indeed separate groups (and no explanation is given about any of it). There are some very Bond-like spynames in the group like CrouchingYeti, Fancy Bear and Gray Cloud but that in itself isn't very illuminating.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We are shown some detail regarding the identity of the exploit. Unfortunately, this is not provided in a context that might be well-understood outside of the Intelligence Community or a small cadre of Cyber security experts. The exploit information is supposed to clinch the identification of the groups in question and maybe it does, however it certainly seems as though part of the story is missing.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Fully half of the document is dedicated to describing various Cyber risk factors and mitigating actions in some detail. While this is good information, it is terribly generic and it seems a though it has been used to inflate the size of the report somewhat - perhaps at the expense of the main point for releasing it.</li>
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While I don't wish too sound too critical here, I think it might be worthwhile for the folks working on this analysis to consider creating another draft. First, I'd like to address why I think that's necessary and then I'll delve into what ought to be revised or added in the next version of the report.</div>
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The reason why we need to get this right should be obvious, but I'll state it again anyway. The report represents the foundation for both the claims that the attack occurred as well as for the sanctions that will follow. This may or may not represent a form of Cyber-warfare (both the attack and the response - I've outlined that topic in more <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/5-principles-cyber-warfare-stephen-lahanas?trk=prof-post" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">depth here</a>). In any case, it is a serious matter and the sanctions probably represent the most severe actions we've taken against Russia since the end of the Cold War. Thus the foundation needs to be as a strong as possible. Obviously, there are national security issues at play with this topic, however in some situations, more information can be better than less. The information missing from the current version of the report includes the following:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Detail on the other organizations which were hit in the attack - there is an implication of a much wider attack, but no specifics.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">An explanation of the context - the goals of the attack and how the stolen information was utilized. Also, there needs to be an explanation of the process of exploit identification for those who aren't already familiar with it.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A discussion of how the US can help safeguard election processes and systems. This is somewhat covered by the best practice portion of the report, but that seems to also be saying that all such mitigation for thwarting future attacks is entirely up to each potential target which isn't altogether satisfying. We should be having stronger a dialog on how critical processes can be protected by the groups we thought we there to perform that task. For example, who if anyone, will take the lead on auditing voting systems in every state?</li>
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The current Grizzly Steppe report seems to have give us the bare minimum. We need more than that if we wish to learn from this experience and keep it from happening again. Let's give it another try...</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas</em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-84701725976931981952016-12-23T10:36:00.003-08:002016-12-23T10:36:38.394-08:00A Framework for Evolutionary Artificial Thought<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
This past week, I was making the long commute between Dayton and Columbus, Ohio and trying to amuse myself the best I could – in this case by listening to a college course on the fundamentals of Particle Physics. One might not think there is an obvious connection between Particle Physics and Artificial Intelligence, but it turns out there is at least one. The connection, in my mind at least, was the framework used in Physics to help organize the field of subatomic particles – it’s known as the Standard Model of Particle Physics.</div>
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In the Physics world in the early 20th century, as in the field of Artificial Intelligence now, there was a tremendous amount of information which was obtained from various sources and very little ability to place it all into a unified context. We discovered particles, defined new mathematics and reinvented philosophy through Relativism and Uncertainty, yet without a guiding framework it all must have seemed terribly chaotic and random for those working in the field. Out of that chaos emerged a framework though; half invented, half discovered – one that helped to focus technology, philosophy and application of the science in question. I thought to myself, this is exactly what we’re missing with Artificial Intelligence. <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-artificial-thought-can-save-ai-stephen-lahanas?trk=prof-post" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">But as I posited in my last post</a>, the framework that’s needed might also require a philosophical adjustment – one that illustrates Intelligence in the context of a combination of evolutionary capabilities which might best be described as Artificial Thought. In that article, I tried to make the philosophical case for something like that might make sense, in this post, I’m going to get a bit more specific and examine the more pragmatic aspects of a Framework for Artificial Thought. </div>
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Let’s start at the beginning – what does this or any such “Framework” buy us? In the case of The Standard Model of Particle Physics, the framework provided the following benefits:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ability to place a number of potentially divergent concepts and discoveries within a unified and coherent context</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ability to explain the nature of something in a manner consistent with empirical data</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ability to support a variety of predictions, like for example the discovery of specific types of new particles, the most recent and famous of those being the Higgs Boson</li>
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For Artificial Thought, the benefits might be a little different, but perhaps not as much as one would think. The high-level value proposition associated with a framework for Artificial Thought might include the following benefits:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ability to align a diverse set of AI theories, techniques and technologies within a coherent, unified context</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ability to define a clear evolutionary path within that context whereby component capabilities can be combined to achieve ever greater orders of Thought and eventually Intelligence</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The ability to better chart and predict success in achieving Thought or AI milestones</li>
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I suppose the biggest difference between Particle Physics and Artificial Thought is that we’re bypassing the need to discover the functions of natural intelligence on the biological level. In other words, there are no CERN-like labs available to discover Thought in progress the way we discover subatomic particles. This could make our efforts harder to achieve, but perhaps only if our goal was to recreate natural intelligence as opposed to generating capabilities which are logically similar if not actually organic in nature. This brings us back to the central premise in the previous article, that recreating the most complex and comprehensive capability is a hell of a tough goal and we should instead worry mostly about intermediate steps rather than the end game (and I might add without getting lost in the growing tangle of 100’s of immediate, lower level details or approaches and opportunities)</div>
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Let’s take a look at what a Framework for Artificial Thought might look like…</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYwohESU5ElvrXkmvPm4gJNwny9ew9jYOMCK6IEPTTFog9RDhIOqOL5p4GJ7AbcYKumZlTOttiTBMrAbWqlHivOGNRt7Q_kvy4NZc698GLE9qq892VazpArPQvIyUkU1W6e4X_V5qXtN0/s1600/Drawing1b.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYwohESU5ElvrXkmvPm4gJNwny9ew9jYOMCK6IEPTTFog9RDhIOqOL5p4GJ7AbcYKumZlTOttiTBMrAbWqlHivOGNRt7Q_kvy4NZc698GLE9qq892VazpArPQvIyUkU1W6e4X_V5qXtN0/s640/Drawing1b.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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The framework resembles an IT architecture because in a sense that’s what it is. Imagine a situation in a few years where we have a galaxy of AI-related capabilities, how might they work together and to what end? This view gives us a hint as to what that might look like. It does more than that though, it also shows how we move from lower-level Thought to higher-level Thought and it also begins to illustrate the potential for orders of Artificial Intelligence through integration of Thought capabilities (both within and across Tiers). The Tiers themselves mimic to some extent the natural intelligence we’ve referred to (both human and otherwise) by illustrating how basic capabilities might evolve into something more.</div>
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Tier 1 is Awareness and I think it’s safe to say this is the area where traditional AI has made the most progress thusfar and that only stands to reason. As we discussed before, Awareness in this context is nothing at all like Self Awareness. We can imagine a rover crawling along the rocky, barren landscape of Mars, avoiding obstacles by becoming aware of them through sensory apparatus and that fits this tier just fine. Is the rover Intelligent? Not really, yet some of the rovers we’ve built or are building can potentially operate on their own without explicit direction or intervention from human operators. This is a good starting place…</div>
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Tier 2 might witness our rover becoming more sophisticated, perhaps learning from its environment and building upon its experiences yet still basically reacting to environment. As you might have noticed from the diagram, it’s clear that Artificial Thought will occur both individually and collectively – something perhaps not fully anticipated by the founders of AI back in the 50’s and 60’s. This has critical implications to the applications of Artificial Thought, for example in the case of the rover, the implication might be that it distributes some of its higher function elsewhere. If maintaining higher Thought from Earth presents difficulties due to the 8 minute travel time for instructions, then perhaps there might be cognitive capability in another part of the lander or on an orbiting satellite. The key idea here though is that the rover itself doesn’t need all of the cognitive capability itself, which would become even more important if for some reason the rover was instead some type of Martian UAV and needed to operate for long periods of time with minimal fuel. The bottom line, though, is that Collective Thought is still Thought, regardless of how it might be distributed or otherwise combined. This is one area where our current view of individualistic human-mimicked Thought really diverges from where we’re headed.</div>
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The question begins to arise in relation to Tier 2 capability as to whether if we combined all of these functions and integrated them somehow, would we in fact achieve a level of Intelligence? For the sake of argument, let’s say yes, that it would. If we combine all capabilities that fit with Tier 1 and Tier 2 Thought, we might say we have achieved a “level 0” order of intelligence. I don’t think Tier 1 by itself would justify that assignment, yet when we look at what Tier 1 represents it does seem to mimic much of what might be required for a lower order of intelligent life to survive.</div>
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With Tier 3, things get more interesting. This is where Watson and some of the other more ambitious AI projects have been focused with limited success, but still some progress has been made. The distinction between reactive and proactive, between simple and complex is a big leap and one that not all Artificial Thought has to make. It’s important to keep in mind here also that the Tiers are not actually separate from one another, rather the higher tiers build from the lower. This model is evolutionary on several levels, both in terms of building capabilities up but also in our ability to mimic the progression of Thought metaphorically from its beginnings to somewhere at least close to how we view it. Beyond those considerations, it also represents a real-time integration architecture as well – with lower information feeding higher level capabilities. If enough integration (across Tier 3 capabilities) occurs then we might say that we’ve reached a “level 1” intelligence.</div>
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Of course, I haven’t defined what level 0 or 1 orders of intelligence represent, but the taxonomy might look something like this:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Level 0 – An order of intelligence mimicking primitive life</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Level 1 – An order of intelligence mimicking intermediate forms of life, but not humans</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Level 2 – An order of intelligence that truly mimics human intelligence</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Level 3 – An order of intelligence beyond human intelligence</li>
</ul>
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Each of these orders or levels of Intelligence involve a multitude of complex Thinking behaviors (I’ve abstracted the view to a great extent for this dialog). The framework I’ve outlined above isn’t focused on level 2 or 3 Intelligence, we can leave that for science fiction for now. But, the next ten years could see some remarkable breakthroughs on the lower levels. “It thinks, therefore it works,” might be a good corollary to Descartes’ original premise.</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas</em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-68123404654012527662016-12-22T09:32:00.000-08:002016-12-22T09:32:13.598-08:00How Artificial Thought Can Save AI<div class="MsoNormal">
Over the past several decades, I’ve seen an endless stream
of predictions and articles in regards to Artificial Intelligence and it
occurred to me recently that we may have missed an important point relating to
this topic. One reason the expectations and the reality of AI have diverged so
greatly may be due entirely to our obsession with the notion that in creating
it we ought to be somehow be mimicking ourselves through some sort of human
intelligence without perhaps truly understanding what that represents. This
seems to be simultaneously our greatest goal and our worst nightmare relating
to AI. But then I got to wondering, what’s the difference between Artificial
Intelligence and Artificial Thought and if we viewed the question from the
latter perspective are we in fact actually making some real progress?<o:p></o:p></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWnI9rAxpyQOcu8vLWgJHPeQTad6bvpU7y04Z8DScSVrhkcguy6t5g5VXRAO5HwGT5M6KkMfVickLKZqIUZzYcFfcGbwnWUVTMc0n4e_quHDriHnEi02r4Ox53YpJ8Lxk0ex84rECWdjE/s1600/1067592_40132402_small.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiWnI9rAxpyQOcu8vLWgJHPeQTad6bvpU7y04Z8DScSVrhkcguy6t5g5VXRAO5HwGT5M6KkMfVickLKZqIUZzYcFfcGbwnWUVTMc0n4e_quHDriHnEi02r4Ox53YpJ8Lxk0ex84rECWdjE/s320/1067592_40132402_small.png" width="320" /></a></div>
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Before we can dive into that question it is worthwhile to
try to define what we mean by Intelligence and Thought. Here’s a good
definition of Intelligence (signed by 52 scientists in the field):<o:p></o:p></div>
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A very general mental capability
that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems,
think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly and learn from
experience. It is not merely book learning, a narrow academic skill, or
test-taking smarts. Rather, it reflects a broader and deeper capability for
comprehending our surroundings—"catching on," "making
sense" of things, or "figuring out" what to do.<o:p></o:p></div>
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I like this definition as opposed to some others I’ve seen
because I think it carries within it a larger scope that we tend to include
with the notion of what Intelligence is or what an intelligent being / entity
has to be able to accomplish. This type of definition serves us for example
when considering what extraterrestrial intelligence might be. Thought, at first
glance, might be considered a subset of Intelligence – it is the act of
demonstrating one’s Intelligence per se but also the product of that
demonstration. The definitions of Thought are somewhat less concise and often
seem a bit recursive though – take this one for example: “a single act or
product of thinking; idea or notion.” Thought can be both a verb and a noun.
Perhaps the reason that it is so difficult to nail down the definition for
Thought is because we do tend to view it as a subset of the superset
Intelligence and describing a component of that process or capability without fully
explaining or understanding it is challenging. One definition that I think fits
our topic a little better comes from the Merriam Webster dictionary; “reasoning
power or a developed intention or plan.” This definition of Thought doesn’t try
to explain it as much as it tends to highlight how or what it represents. Interestingly,
this more compact definition also closely mirrors some of the first definitions
for Artificial Intelligence, but we’ll return to that in a minute. <o:p></o:p></div>
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So, at the highest level, “Intelligence” might be considered
a higher reasoning power, one that also tends to imply self-awareness and
continuity of thought and a sort of assimilation of knowledge into a Self as
time passes. Intelligence may be more than that as well in that there is an
integrative aspect to it that often isn’t included the definitions – sometimes
we view that integrative aspect as Self but not always. If we return to the
Ontology of the subject, we might be able to state that you can’t have
Intelligence without the thought process or individual thoughts but perhaps you
can have thoughts without Intelligence per se. In other words, Intelligence at
least on the face of it, seems to represent a higher order than Thought,
although as we know from the real world that there are also various orders or
levels of Intelligence too. <o:p></o:p></div>
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This is more of a philosophical question then a technical
one, but let me follow it a bit further. Let’s say that there can be Thought
without Intelligence and the key difference between the two in the context of
Human Intelligence (which seems to be what many have tried to emulate) may be
self-awareness and the ability to integrate reality within a unique perspective
and context. At its most fundamental, Thought can be disconnected from other Thought
as well as from any experience or capability resembling self-awareness and / or
complex integrative interpretation. By this definition, there are likely a wide
variety of animals that have mental activity that might be described as
Thought, but certainly not Intelligence in the sense we tend to attribute to
humans. There can be lower levels of Intelligence, but the difference there
between Thought has less to with self and more to do with Integrative
interpretation. If we view any organism as a complex system or system of
systems, then some level of integrative coordination is always occurring. This
coordination is often automatic, even for humans, but sometimes it is
deliberate. Deliberate integration may be classified as Thought, but it doesn’t
necessarily require Self-Awareness.<o:p></o:p></div>
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All of this begs the question, what is Self-Awareness and
why is it so important in the distinction between Thought and Intelligence?<o:p></o:p></div>
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Self-Awareness implies an understanding or expectation of identity.
There can, of course, be Awareness without any indication that a Self exists.
Take away Self from the equation of Intelligence and what you have left are a
lot of the same capabilities; such as Learning (to a point), Memory (from an
objective rather than a subjective context), and Thought which can accomplish
many of the same goals that intelligent Thought can, but not all of them. Take
Self away and you can also potentially discard the requirement for complex
integration (the level and type of integration can become much more selective).
We might refer to this Selfless state as “Targeted Thought” and this is a
little more interesting in that it represents areas within which Thought can be
developed, specialized and reinforced without higher-level expectations. The
difference between that and Thought in the traditional sense (as a subset of
Intelligence) is that there are likely to be clear boundaries that constrain
the operation of Targeted Thought. A Targeted Thought “Boundary” for example
might operate solely within the context of airline routes and all of the
processes directly associated with flight routing. Within that boundary,
reasoning power based on planning and guided toward specific intentions could
take place to help solve questions of efficiency or profit. This type of
Thought can still be considered “novel” thought as long as it isn’t fully
determined in advance, but it is unlikely that something artificially
constrained to a single purpose ought to be considered intelligent in the way
we tend to view Intelligence.<o:p></o:p></div>
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So, Artificial Thought in the abstract sense might be
considered as the ability to derive novel outputs from similar inputs based on real-world
situations and unique (yet mostly static) rulesets and perhaps various Targeted
boundaries. This definition provides a framework in which Artificial cognition
or Thought might obtain near-term success – a much narrower view to be sure and
one already potentially aligned with nearly every practical AI effort yet undertaken.
This definition is perhaps not too far off from what the initial definitions
for Artificial Intelligence were, yet the types of predictions that we can make
about what Artificial Thought can or can’t do will likely become much better
defined within this narrower confine.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Let’s go from the abstract to the real world, Nature. In
Nature, lower level organisms likely have many potential applications for
Thought but don’t build that type of Thought around language or complex symbols
but rather through some sort of connection to various sensory capability and
stimuli. It wouldn’t be expected for a squirrel to memorize a complex path
between several dozen trees bearing acorns, yet in order for the squirrel to
succeed and survive through the Winter, he must have a well-defined ruleset
informed by recent and current experience that facilitates such navigation. The
squirrel’s journey is a problem-solving exercise, one that he may or may not be
able to learn from or remember but one that he has to be able to repeat
successfully under dynamic conditions. The squirrel might be viewed as a system
which demonstrates a limited level of awareness, and employs novel thought in
an integrative manner so it might be considered a lower-level intelligence
(when all of those capabilities are combined). <o:p></o:p></div>
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My point with the squirrel analogy is this; if we were to
attempt to create & program an Intelligent squirrel (using the more
expansive of scope of the definition for Intelligence) to think through all of
this we might be missing the point or be conducting a certain level of overkill.
We could instead take any portion of the capability the squirrel possesses and
use that to solve various types of problems or perform tasks. In other words,
in deconstructing even a lower order of Intelligence, we can extract some
Artificial Thinking capability that might prove useful – capability that likely
far outstrips what we’re currently able to do.
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And even if we were to view all those capabilities combined
in the case of the Squirrel’s survival, he simply doesn’t require a general
purpose Intelligence the way we’ve been defining it in AI, but he does require
a certain level or type of Thought (novel action resulting from dynamic inputs).
This is not to downplay the complexity of the squirrel’s mission, which is in
fact fairly daunting. Any successful squirrel must regularly evade predators,
find food, find shelter and navigate its environment in a dynamic 24/7
environment. The navigation problem alone is challenging enough, and we use
such problems all the time to test the efficacy of AI programs. However, while
the squirrel needs to be able to jump from one branch to another without
falling, it doesn’t require a complex understanding of Physics to do that
successfully. A squirrel utilizes sensory information to determine speed,
distance and other factors and makes a decision as to whether he should or
shouldn’t jump. If we can achieve any sort of novel decision making, even in
areas much less complex than the squirrel experiences, we will have made
serious progress. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Let’s return to the concept of Thought again for a moment.
What we’ve just described as Artificial Thought in essence represents a
combination of Data Fusion (sensory data) and logical problem solving. The
rulesets can be hardwired directly into the thinking machine, without it ever
having to learn or improve upon them, although some limited form of learning
may be a possibility. The requirement for natural or machine learning is not an
absolute necessity for Artificial Thought whereas it might be for AI. Nature for
example, endows its various creatures with a minimal number of rulesets – just
what’s needed and not much more and only very basic learning abilities. This primitive
level of Thought and corresponding lack of self-awareness is perfectly
acceptable for a multitude of tasks (and keep in mind that a lack of
self-awareness does not imply lack of awareness). This scenario, or even pieces
of it, still more or less surpasses what Artificial Intelligence can achieve
today, yet it represents a much more realistic target if we reconsider how we
might go about achieving it. If we were to combine a number of diverse Thought
processes we might be said to be building a lower order of Intelligence, but
not yet perhaps the general purpose, human inspired intelligence most
associated with AI. And that is perfectly ok as it still represents real
progress.<o:p></o:p></div>
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There’s another consideration and area of confusion as well
when it comes to the struggle to create Artificial Intelligence; it has to do
with the obsession of creating architectures inspired by what we believe to be
the structures underlying human intelligence (e.g. the human brain). Neural
networks as a metaphor is perhaps the best example of this but not the only
one. Sometimes, I think this is like designing a mission to Mars based on the
understanding of how a bottle-rocket works; while there are bound to be some
similarities – our understanding of human physiology in regards to Intelligence
is still relatively primitive. More importantly perhaps, is the realization
that there are a massive set of applications available for machines that think
but aren’t necessarily intelligent. This means that even if we did understand
how to recreate human or even a general intelligence, the overhead for doing so
might not really be necessary or at least not yet. There’s a lot we could do
using mere Thought in a more selective sense. <o:p></o:p></div>
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And why is selective or Targeted Thought of any value? Well,
if we look at IT for example and the amount of effort directed towards
explicitly defining behaviors in code the value should become readily apparent
– Thought – even targeted and selective Thought – could make the operation of
any type of machine or system infinitely more efficient. And just because the
machines in question cannot appreciate the Thoughts they’re having, doesn’t
mean that can’t build new behaviors or learn from an initial set of foundational
rules (either individually or collectively). We don’t have to worry about
recreating nature per se, we simply have to keep in mind the pragmatic
motivations behind the value proposition that nature has illustrated so
convincingly to us. If we do that, and work towards simpler goals in an
evolutionary fashion, we can grow Artificial Thought into a powerful part of
most industries. This approach also builds upon areas where success has already
occurred and has the potential to accelerate those successes but it also
tempers expectations in regards to what can or even what should be done.
Artificial Thought (as opposed to Artificial Intelligence) can become much more
focused and specialized in terms of its architectural objectives. <o:p></o:p></div>
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It’s time to come full-circle and consider again why there
is such confusion and disappointment in the field of AI. It starts with the
definition for Artificial Intelligence:<o:p></o:p></div>
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Artificial intelligence (AI) is the
intelligence exhibited by machines. In computer science, an ideal
"intelligent" machine is a flexible rational agent that perceives its
environment and takes actions that maximize its chance of success at an
arbitrary goal. Colloquially, the term "artificial intelligence" is
applied when a machine mimics "cognitive" functions that humans
associate with other human minds, such as "learning" and
"problem solving." Here’s another definition:<o:p></o:p></div>
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A branch of computer science
dealing with the simulation of intelligent behavior in computers; the
capability of a machine to imitate intelligent human behavior.<o:p></o:p></div>
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When I refer to Thought versus Intelligence, I’m not
implying that Thought can or should resemble human thought, rather what I’m
positing is that Thought is any cognitive ‘processing’ that isn’t explicitly
programmed up front (e.g. it is semi-random in nature based upon inputs fed
into it). We’re not talking about simulating human intelligence or behavior and
this type of thought is limited in terms of the Intuitive or contextual
capability – it is certainly not creative Thought. The distinctions I’m making
are important. In our industry (IT), we’re perhaps too enthusiastic in
pronouncing this or the other technology as being “Intelligent” in some regard.
The reality is that none of them truly are, which is also why after pursuing
Artificial Intelligence for more than 50 years, few are willing to say anyone
has actually achieved it. But that’s not to say we’ve achieved nothing – we
have in fact built a wide variety of foundational technologies which are coming
close to filling effective roles as Cognitive Aids. These technologies don’t
simulate human thought, but rather expand or supplement it with Artificial
Thought which we can choose to apply intelligently or otherwise. The type of thinking
that we should be focused on is discrete, focused and targeted.</div>
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I supposed this dialog risks the possibility of replacing
one vague and hard to realize concept with another, but there does need to be a
way to classify intermediary cognitive capability that goes beyond standard
computing but falls short of human cognition. We don’t need to speculate too
much on the quality of thought in various animals that clearly have the ability
to think on some level and we might extend the same courtesy to machines or
systems. We don’t have to consider either as Intelligent to appreciate some
value in what they do – and many successful organisms obviously don’t think at
all – but the ones that do can become role models so to speak for the near-term
goals associated with artificial cognition. Understanding or recreating
biological neural processes aren’t necessary here either – the models we’re
aiming for are pragmatic and logical with animals simply providing a useful
analogy if nothing more (which means we’d use them as models in a way somewhat
different than we might for Robotics). <o:p></o:p></div>
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Descartes once said, “I think, Therefore I am.” Someday, I’m
sure there will be a machine that becomes Intelligent in this context, by
becoming self-aware. It’s time to recognize that the path towards machine
intelligence ought to follow a more rigorous evolution of less lofty goals. In
my next article in this series, I’m going to provide a framework for
classifying types of Artificial Thought and discuss how that can be allied with
architectural objectives as well as current or near-term technologies and
applications. <o:p></o:p></div>
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Copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas<o:p></o:p></div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-82578102180477852812016-12-16T15:56:00.000-08:002016-12-16T15:56:46.285-08:00The 5 Principles of Cyber Warfare<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
This week we got a partial glimpse into the types of action that the United States might consider to be acts of Cyber Warfare. I had written about this topic 2 weeks ago in regards to <a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pulse/technology-2016-election-part-2-voting-integrity-stephen-lahanas?trk=mp-reader-card" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: #8c68cb; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; word-wrap: break-word;" target="_blank">Voting Integrity</a> in the face of Russian cyber attacks, but the story has escalated since then – culminating this week in direct accusations against the Russian government. The CIA and even President Obama have directly implicated Putin as being personally involved with the deliberate aim of swaying the 2016 election. In a year of big stories, this may have been the most far reaching in its implications. One of those implications, which has already been alluded to by many in Washington, is that this act may in fact represent a form of Cyber Warfare.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvuPLikINzpBPKTZW06Vzx1DZzut8VMhRFIbnDO63KF1z1uZQvUmJxHDQqneCPdlFPK6okhD762Hn4k8nmUU4tQ6cV7MdIMn0NflogI_t5BzTJv0AXEhd0t-FqMcMa6hthHD6PJKTzPAk/s1600/PatternAttack.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgvuPLikINzpBPKTZW06Vzx1DZzut8VMhRFIbnDO63KF1z1uZQvUmJxHDQqneCPdlFPK6okhD762Hn4k8nmUU4tQ6cV7MdIMn0NflogI_t5BzTJv0AXEhd0t-FqMcMa6hthHD6PJKTzPAk/s640/PatternAttack.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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So, what exactly does Cyber Warfare mean and how does it differ – if at all – from Cyber Terrorism? That’s a tough question, one that I’ve not seen answered clearly before. Cyber Terrorism can come from nation states, such as China, North Korea, Iran and so forth, but one might expect that actions perpetrated by nation-states are less like terrorism per se and more like warfare. It is worthwhile at this point to step back into the not too distant past and bring up a similar question that also still applies here – what’s the difference between a “Cold” and a “Hot” war? The Cold War, as you might remember, involved a whole host activities from espionage to proxy wars. The Hot or real war between the super-powers never occurred and it didn’t happen primarily because of the concept of Mutual Assured Destruction through use of our nuclear arsenals. In that case, the distinction between the terms also involved both the nature of the participants as well as the types of activities involved which is similar to the current question.</div>
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None of this really helps though to clear up the confusion regarding what is or what isn’t Cyber Warfare. Here are a few reasons why:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Warfare can be both covert and overt – depending on the nature and intent of the attacks as well on the determination as to whether they should be publicized in any way.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Warfare could be conducted by both Nation States and Terrorist organizations. The key distinction here though would be that we wouldn’t necessarily classify acts committed by smaller unknown groups or even individuals as Cyber Warfare. In those instances, the term Cyber Terrorism might be more applicable. However, it is also clear that in Cyber Warfare, as in traditional warfare, non-nation state organizations can and have conducted offensive operations.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Warfare can be a standalone or blended activity (e.g. coordinated with other traditional war-fighting activities). It’s conceivable that an entire conflict could be fought solely within the Cyber Domain. Cyber “Domain” here refers to the notion that Cyber represents one of several potential war-fighting domains such as Land, Sea, Air and Space. The US military formally acknowledged Cyber as such a domain with its creation of US Cyber Command several years ago. Of course the reality of this statement is more complicated than it sounds as Cyber also infiltrates all other warfare domains through the technology implied by it – it is cross-cutting domain and even if an attack were completely limited to Cyber actions it is highly likely that physical capabilities (such war-fighting assets as ships, planes etc.) might be impacted.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Warfare can be directed at the Government or the Industrial Base or both. We can’t say for example, that all attacks against businesses must be considered Terrorism per se – the intent is what’s important. If the intent of an attack is to cripple the country that’s been targeted, then a Cyber attack like that is no different in principle from the types of bombing raids we conducted against Germany in WW2 in order to cripple its industrial base. Today though, the sectors that are perhaps more vulnerable might be Energy and Finance as opposed to Manufacturing. The results might be the same though if the goal is hobble an economy or otherwise disrupt a nation state.</li>
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Now, we are ready to consider what the distinctions between Cyber Warfare and Cyber Terrorism really are. They would likely involve the following considerations:</div>
<ol style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Warfare must necessarily consist of a sustained campaign of Cyber activities, designed to disrupt any mission critical functions of an enemy at a national level. This doesn’t mean the activities have to occur in many places to effect a national impact, it merely has to be designed to impact an opponent that way (and would also likely encompass more than one attack or incident).</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber warfare must necessarily occur between substantial Cyber combatants. The nature of what constitutes a ‘substantial’ combatant lies in what resources they have to bring to bear in any given conflict. A well-established terrorist or rebel group may have the money and personnel to manage sustained attacks. However smaller groups with few resources may only be able to sustain limited operations or a single attack. While there is always the possibility that an individual or a small group might be able to do harm at the national level, it is unlikely that they could sustain this over months or years and it would be more akin to one-off terrorism than warfare in the context of sustained operations and likely outcomes.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber warfare, in general, involves more specific objectives in contrast to Terrorism which is often random in nature and may only be focused on making a statement rather than effecting some desired outcome.</li>
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By these definitions, I’d have to say that the Russian hacking of the DNC computers and related activities designed to impact the 2016 election falls under the category of Cyber Warfare rather than Terrorism. And this begs the question, why does all of this matter and why do we need more specific definitions? The bottom line is, that if we don’t have a clear idea of what represents acts of Cyber warfare (either covert or overt), it’s highly likely we won’t be able measure our response properly. Deciding how to respond is obviously a very big deal – as any such decisions could quickly escalate from the Cyber domain into all the others. Perhaps our government does have all of this worked out, and maybe it’s just too secret for any of us to know about. However, from our vantage point now it’s all bit fuzzy. When the President says “we will retaliate in a manner and time of our own choosing” we basically don’t have a clue to what that really means.</div>
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Rather than spend a lot of time speculating as to what our response might be, we can instead highlight some principles that may apply to any such situation. The following principles represent a potential framework that might be used to help deal with Cyber warfare as it continues to evolve.</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Proactive Awareness</u> – In order to survive or win any Cyber conflict, the nation needs to know when in fact it is under attack. Some attacks are more obvious than others and as the recent election shows, our response can be slow or too late to avoid impacts. Proactive Cyber Awareness is not about hacking into everyone’s cell phones, but rather it is about being able to identify unusual behavior in key systems and sectors across the country (or wherever our interests may be). This means we need more selective and actionable intelligence then we seem to be getting now.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Measured Response</u> – This has been mentioned in the news, but as I noted it’s not been explained by anyone (at least publicly) yet. For this to actually work, someone needs to define the measured responses up front rather than assessing each event as if it were the first time it had been considered. The landscape is fairly complicated so this involves a lot of work and some automation. However, it shouldn’t fully automatic any more than our current traditional war-fighting capabilities are – the human in the loop must always be present.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Defined Escalation Approach</u> – This is a process and it ought to be built atop the measured responses defined previously, the idea being that whenever or wherever Cyber activities begin crossing over to other areas there needs to be another level of safeguards built in to avoid any type of cascading escalation that could lead to something like a nuclear conflict.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Maintain a Consistent Policy</u> - In theory, our management of Cyber war shouldn’t be unique in each potential scenario – there ought to be a consistent expectation as to what will happen if enemies launch attacks against the US. This is a key point in the recent debate over Russia as the situation has also become embroiled in US political differences, confusing the matter. While there will always need to be specific considerations given to certain situations, we should never give an indication to any opponent that Cyber attacks may be permitted without any response coming from the US. This would be an extremely dangerous precedent and helps to explain why the President and CIA made statements this week to the effect that election interference would not go unpunished. Better late than never and like all of warfare, if we're in the game we should build policy around what's necessary to win - as opposed to settling for mere survival. There may such as a thing as a Cyber Maginot Line...</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Continuous Innovation</u> – This may be the most important point, given the stark reality that it is easier and more cost effective to mount a Cyber attack than it is to defend against one. Despite the billions spent each year in the US across government and the private sectors, Cyber Security breaches and attacks have only become more prevalent and severe. More focus needs to be given to pushing the envelope on innovation to help reduce the current advantages enjoyed by our Cyber opponents. Today, much if not the majority of innovation has come from the attackers and we’ve been playing catch-up. As in every other realm of warfare, the side with the greatest technological advantage tends to win.</li>
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It’s anyone’s guess as to whether the current Russian hacking crisis will boil over into something more, but one thing is certain, the age of Cyber Warfare has most definitely dawned.</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas</em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-32928116436753203132016-12-11T16:14:00.000-08:002016-12-11T16:14:29.215-08:00Technology & The 2016 Election part 5: Voter Beware<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
This is the last in my series of posts on how Technology influenced the 2016 election. As I write this, new articles keep streaming out in relation to Fake News, Russian hacking and transition appointments. While we may have hoped that after the election had finished, things might cool down – it seems that presumption may have been premature. In the previous posts, I discussed specific technologies, trends and tactics but what does it all mean for us the voters? Few of us wish to be or are qualified to be pundits, we just want to do our civic duty with the least amount of drama and hassle possible – yet drama and hassle seem to be looming large in everyone’s future. What if anything can we as voters do?</div>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">In some ways, such as how candidates are selected, things have changed little...</td></tr>
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This is probably the toughest question of them all and we know it’s one that’s not being answered as more and more people get turned off from the political process. I think there may two tracks here in terms of the types of things we as voters can do to prepare for and ultimately (or hopefully) improve the process…</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Track 1 – Voter Beware</u></div>
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This is a slight turn on the phrase “buyer beware,” but the analogy seems a good one. In coming years, we ought to try to get more savvy in regards to how all politicians – from every side – are trying to manipulate us one way or the other. Politicians and ideas are products in many ways; they’re advertised like them, we buy them to make ourselves better and when we’re sick of them we discard them and trade up for newer models. Now, maybe I’m being a bit too cynical here, but there are some upsides to viewing this as a Consumerism. Consumers, for one thing, often take more time investigating which brands to buy and actually comparison shop as opposed to sticking with the same thing out of loyalty year open year. Consumers even use unbiased guides to help them wade though the false claims of many products to get at the truth because ultimately, buying the right product can save you a lot of money.</div>
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The saving money part is actually an even better analogy to the political process given that the choices we make in elections probably effect our pocketbooks more than all of the comparison shopping we’ll ever do. This year has given us some valid and interesting motivations for perhaps becoming a little more skeptical and judicious when we listen to the political promises of politicians. This year we’ve seen how much pure propaganda has been used to confuse or manipulate us, we’ve seen that raw sentiment (either negative or positive) might not always be the best basis for making a decision. Another way of putting that might be, that if you’re voting against something chances are you really don’t appreciate or understand what it is you’re really voting for. That’s a bit like buying a Jeep instead of a F150 when you really wanted a Prius – it just doesn’t make any sense and if everyone does that it is quite likely that most people will end up unsatisfied to some degree. Here are a couple of other pragmatic suggestions:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Don’t get all of your news off Facebook</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Look for unbiased sources and combine those with the ones you trust already and see what the comparisons really look like from different perspectives</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Don’t let anyone think for you. Take the time to research yourself.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Don’t let anyone discourage you from voting. It’s not just a right or a privilege – it’s an obligation. If the majority of Americans hold their nose in disgust but choose not to participate, then they’ve lost the right to complain about the outcome (which of course they likely will).</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Demand more of your candidate or party. Don’t let them sink further into ambiguous, abbreviated explanations. They will continue to try to win you over with Twitter but we all know that no one can hold an intelligent conversation using 140 characters or less and no one should treat the American people as if they’re too dumb to go beyond that.</li>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Track 2 – What Could We Change?</u></div>
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If I had to pick one problem which looms above all others at least at the presidential level, it wouldn’t be the electoral college (although that’s not so great), rather it is the way we choose candidates in our party system. There are several huge problems here, including:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A closed system that prevents the vast majority of interested, qualified people from ever participating</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The same system also prevents of us from participating until after all the real choices are made – and then we’re just stuck with it</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A lock on the main two parties with almost no ability for 3rd parties to gain access. A perfect example of this are the uneven rules that nearly every state requires for candidates to get on the ballot – 3rd party candidates typically require 1,000’s more signatures making it nearly impossible for them to even join a national race</li>
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I’ve highlighted these issues specifically because I think one of the most annoying aspects of our system seems to be the lack of actual choice we have as voters, which in turn leaves us with the feeling that it’s the same cast of characters over and over again. And truthfully, that feeling is pretty accurate – for a nation of over 300 hundred million people, we’ve got a tiny handful of what seem to be the same people running everything. Those of us who want change and see the same people doing the same things across administrations and across parties once they get elected, tend to get frustrated. That’s perhaps one explanation for what happened this year.</div>
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I’ve got another suggestion though, one that could be fueled by technology but hasn’t happened yet. Most states and districts allow for “write-in” candidates. If the traditional parties do not want to open up (and occasionally they do but usually only for billionaires, otherwise it seems as though the Backroom approach is still going strong); then why not translate the practical experience gained from all sorts of Internet activism and turn that into a new form of political party – a Logical Party. “Logical” not because it makes any particular sense (although hopefully it would), but Logical in the sense that it would be “Virtual” and exist only as an online community. This Logical or Virtual party could then have an open and online selection process (and to be fair there are some places that have started doing this, it’s not entirely new) and it could field candidates both in the presidential race and in state races. Now that would be some real Populism.</div>
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And why not? It couldn’t be any worse than 2016, right?</div>
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Copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-79263861201735582016-12-10T06:57:00.001-08:002016-12-10T06:57:06.358-08:00Technology & The 2016 Election part 4: A New Age for Political Campaigning<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
In this latest post in our series, we’ll look at how lessons from the 2016 campaign will be applied in all future campaigns – and not just at the national or presidential level…</div>
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Will this year’s election change the way campaigns will be run from here on out? In a word, yes. Is this due to any single innovation or any single campaign or candidate? Not really, the trends that emerged this year encompassed new techniques that worked across campaigns as well as old ones that failed unexpectedly in others. Let’s take look at what worked and what didn’t.</div>
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What Worked in 2016 across Campaigns? Here are a few items:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Platforms as Memes</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Momentum Building & Fund Raising through Social Media</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And Free Media</li>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Platforms & Candidates as Internet Memes</u> – The two candidates who exploited this best were Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump. Both employed what seemed to be odd or unconventional messaging, but messaging that soon took viral flight. ‘Build the wall,’ ‘Feel the Bern’ and “Drain the Swamp” combined with other images or phrases helped to shape campaign identities and build a sense of community among supporters. The successful Memes were ones that harnessed or stoked discontent but discontent that was coming from both ends of the political spectrum. Memes are somewhat complex and a bit difficult to understand for people who are deliberately setting out to create them – they tend to take on a life of their own and are often unpredictable. I suppose a good analogy to what existed before I politics that was somewhat like this were extremely famous campaign jingles or something like the “Daisy Ad.” Memes combine public relations, advertising, political discourse into neat recognizable bundles – a trend that also extended to other aspects of messaging this year.</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Exploitation of Social Media as the Primary Channel to Reach Voters</u> - This was new and as noted in a previous post, President Elect Trump is still using it even now as his primary mode of communicating with the electorate. The traditional media establishment wanted to write off both Bernie and Trump so their campaigns both bypassed it and this year – that actually worked. Social media was how all momentum was created in both campaigns and it was well integrated with the rallies. One might think of these campaigns as ‘crowd-sourced politics’ – with each candidate raising most of their funds from small donors (more the case with Bernie than Trump). This latter development was perhaps the most shocking aspect of the campaign given the recent flood of dark money into politics after the Citizens United decision by the Supreme Court in 2010. Had Bernie won instead of the Billionaire Trump, the crowd-sourcing aspect of the election would have taken on much greater significance, potentially heralding an end to big money influence in politics. The fact that Trump used it to win though makes it all the more fascinating.</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Free is Good, and now it’s Effective Too</u> – The King of Tabloids knew from the start that a certain type of communications approach was likely to garner non-stop free election coverage. The fact that other candidates were able to generate almost as much attention without sounding quite so sensational was surprising. If effectiveness is measured in how many people hear a message and actually listen, then the free media given to Sanders and Trump definitely eclipsed traditional media buys this year. In some ways, it might be worthwhile to pronounce the traditional campaign ad as obsolete. Although, that might be a bit premature, as some state races saw effective use of television buys as in Ohio. But in the Ohio Senate race for example, it was a traditional media campaign poised against another poorly funded traditional media campaign instead of a proactive social media campaign. In the future, all media will likely start in Social Media and if it expands into Traditional media buys, it will do so as part of a larger campaign still driven from Social Media (to reinforce its effectiveness). For example, the cost of one professionally produced campaign video distributed let’s say on a state level, one could easily create 100 social media videos or podcasts and distribute them free nationally. The fact that media looks perfect isn’t what should be important here – it’s getting the message across to the audience that needs to hear it. If it isn’t as slick as a Hollywood movie so what – if it looks and feels genuine – so much the better.</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Zeroing on the Voters – GOTV</u> – We learned in 2016 that getting out the vote can definitely be more efficient and that discouraging the vote is now a widely accepted campaign practice by many and highly effective. The Trump campaign introduced innovations such as use of a mobile app that allowed door-knocking volunteers to register every house they visited and instantly update the information to the Cloud. This combined with a more targeted type of informal polling, designed to help drive tactics and message, made the Trump campaign particularly effective.</div>
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What didn’t work in 2016? That includes…</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Traditional GOTV</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Traditional Media</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Traditional Messaging (conservative versus sensational)</li>
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We might even add ‘Traditional Candidates’ to the list, as the overall mode for change seemed to imply that as well. Whether national discontent has been stoked beyond the realm of reason or whether it’s been justified is a difficult question. While ordinary Americans have found it hard to get ahead, the country itself has been doing pretty well by all the objective measures used by both parties in the past. Unemployment for example is down to some of the lowest levels in terms of jobless claims since the 1970’s. This is all the more incredible considering we were on the brink of a Depression in 2008. Be that as it may, though, the perception this year was that government is ineffective and the usual cast of suspects were – well suspect. That led to a lot of what had worked before to fail utterly this year.</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Traditional GOTV</u> – The key part of this phrase is Get Out, if your voters do not go out and vote, the candidate doesn’t win. This year there were also some fundamental errors made in terms of where to focus the GOTV efforts. The Clinton campaign lost crucial votes from minority communities and women and focused perhaps too much on trying to shore up their union and white working base. This may sound counter-intuitive given all of the commentary after the election about how Clinton lost the white working class male vote. But the fact remains and should have been recognized by the Clinton campaign that she had really lost that vote and should not have wasted time knocking on many doors that turned out to belong to Trump supporters. This was evidence of poor internal polling and an inability to quickly adjust to changing circumstances. In the 3 swing states where recounts were requested, the difference in women, African Americans and Latinos who didn’t vote at all may have carried each of those states for Clinton had she been able to get them out of the house. Previous technology innovations such as Robo-Calling weren’t working so well this year and the Clinton campaign did a relatively poor job of generating enthusiasm in much of the party base. Some of this was due to the harsh Primary but some of it was also a lack of understanding in how to properly use technology to help organize, motivate and target voters.</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Traditional Media Didn’t Work</u> – Clinton’s slick media campaign lacked the personal touch that made Bernie more accessible and Trump more exciting. Anything that was too polished, too familiar this year, was likely to remind the voters of how often they’d seen professional politics played before. That didn’t go over so well this election cycle and may not ever again. It seemed at times that the Clinton strategy was to stay above the fray and play it safe, allowing a flood of attacks to go unanswered on social media or traditional media (and using traditional media to try to respond to all of that would have been impractical).</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Traditional Messaging Didn’t Work</u> – We’ve gotten used to vague political messages that often didn’t connect with our personal concerns or interests. However, vague personal messaging seem to work pretty well. Those who made their messages more personal this year and found a way to deliver them in a more direct manner, did exceptionally well. Even if you weren’t an insider, sounding like an insider was problematic this year. This is all very understandable though if we consider that people seldom have the opportunity to communicate with their elected representatives – any message or medium that allows there to be a sense that two-way communication is happening is likely to be well-received.</div>
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Another reason traditional messaging didn’t work well this year is that the dynamic Social Media driven campaigns of Sanders and Trump understood how to condense their messaging to levels never before experienced in American politics. What does that mean? Didn’t every campaign since Washington’s depend on relatively simplistic slogans? Well, yes and no. In the past there was both the shorthand and the detailed message. The slogans, posters, ads and jingles were the shorthand – but there was generally real substance backing all of that up. This year, in the Trump campaign in particular, substance was viewed as a liability and largely disregarded – it was truly the Twitter platform. Every issue had to be explained in 140 characters or less, with little or no expectation for further elaboration.</div>
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From this point forward, we’ll see several important trends emerging in nearly every political campaign for better or worse:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Communications / Media directors will now probably be referred to as Social Media Directors and all communications will be coordinated in that context.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Voter polling and targeting within campaigns will become more selective and more accurate – with a focus on ensuring that the solid base is turned out with less concern about the margins. The margins will likely be dealt with more through messaging than with GOTV.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Messaging will also be likely dedicated in most campaigns to discourage the margins and some of the opposing base to vote at all. While Negative campaigning is nothing new, the art of increasing the opponent’s negative ratings has reached all time heights this year and it’s unlikely that this type of success will be ignored. And more candidates will follow the trend to “Twitterize” their platforms.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Campaign litigation will increase. As more voter suppression laws proliferate and Gerrymandering becomes more prevalent, the focus of election contests for decades to come will address both election outcomes and the underlying electoral systems themselves. It is important to note that at this time, there is one side in American politics that is consistently behind voter suppression but that’s not to say that someday things couldn’t flip – it’s happened before. Campaigns will be facing these types of issues in nearly every election from now on, so if you thought this campaign might finally put an end to the age of Hyper-Controversy, think again, it’s just starting.</li>
</ol>
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In my next post and the last in this series, I’m going to look at how all of these types of changes will impact you the voter and how you can prepare for it in upcoming elections.</div>
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Copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas</div>
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Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-41550695681716577802016-12-04T10:01:00.003-08:002016-12-04T10:01:39.812-08:00Technology & Election 2016 part 3 – The Failure of Data Science?<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
The first reaction on election night, November 8th, 2016 was – what, how did that happen? The entire country and in fact the whole world was more or less shocked at the unexpected outcome. But why was it so unexpected? The top level answer to that is simply that nearly every major poll or projection turned out to be wrong. What kind of numbers are we talking about? For example, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight blog projected Clinton to win by about 5% in the popular vote (with 71% certainty). If we drill down to the state polls we see that the projections showed all 3 key turnover states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania going to Clinton by 3 to 5% in each contest. This is significant because many of these projections (and blogs like FiveThirtyEight) were using aggregates of dozens or hundreds of polls, not just one or a handful and the differences exceeded the margin of error.</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUz6Rs80OcCcC1DyX6ucMYnGB47JFPvH5oLc5ht8144sIbQpkAaJA_4hyphenhyphenhiPkvXpAxfkAtTJeSXb5JdACeGpO3t2CphDrUWtZcqG3zPNlDROTJhKhTlF_jsaFgoKIXgONet1GSWkX2OhU/s1600/politics_vote_bitch_1347986_o.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUz6Rs80OcCcC1DyX6ucMYnGB47JFPvH5oLc5ht8144sIbQpkAaJA_4hyphenhyphenhiPkvXpAxfkAtTJeSXb5JdACeGpO3t2CphDrUWtZcqG3zPNlDROTJhKhTlF_jsaFgoKIXgONet1GSWkX2OhU/s400/politics_vote_bitch_1347986_o.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Let’s step back for a moment and talk about the typical role that Data Science plays in the election process today. This role encompasses several well-known and some lessor known functions, including:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Predictive polling</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Exit polling</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Predictive modeling</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Vote targeting (which facilitates a sort of CRM for campaign marketing as well as Get Out the Vote efforts)</li>
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There’s nothing new about polling, it’s been around for a long time. In fact, the last time there was a collective shock like this year’s outcome was in 1948, when the polls had predicted Dewey would win (by 50 to 45% - but Truman won by 50% to 45%). Polls have improved since then and of course, now we have the benefit of the latest data technology as well as 70 years of added experience, so how did nearly every major poll get it wrong this year? There are some theories; they include the following:</div>
<ol style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">A lot of people changed their minds at the last moment and weren’t particularly firm in their previous opinions.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Russians did it.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Many polls were not properly targeting prospective voters for their models.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Many people who had said they were voting for Clinton didn’t turn out to vote at all (e.g. the lack of enthusiasm)</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The poll numbers for the 3rd party candidates may have been inflated, and when it came to election day these candidates received far fewer votes that had been predicted (the implication being they went ahead and voted for one of the main candidates with Trump being the main beneficiary).</li>
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To be honest, we may never have a fully satisfactory answer for what happened in the 2016 election. It is likely that we’ve never had a race where both of the main candidates were universally unpopular and that kind of situation might never happen again (and there’s no telling how that may have impacted the polling results). How do we move forward then? Did technology, did Data Science fail us in 2016? Maybe, but probably not. What we witnessed however is that technology is only as good as our ability to apply it. If situations become more dynamic, complex within a relatively short window, do we stick with what we know or do we adjust our models or practices?</div>
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I’d like to step back for a moment here and ask a larger question. Do we really want ironclad predictions before elections in the first place? Before the big upset on election night, many pundits were talking about the lessons learned from the 1980 election where results from the East Coast encouraged West Coast voters to stay home thinking their votes didn’t really count. Because of that, the FEC passed a rule prohibiting networks from announcing winners before certain polls close. Don’t polls predicting a sure outcome before an election have a similar chilling effect? This year for example, how many voters may have stayed home because while they weren’t terribly enthused about Clinton, thought she would win? That’s a hard question to ask because people who don’t show up to vote can’t be interviewed in exit polls (or at least typically aren’t interviewed as part of the election post mortem).</div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">What can we do in Future to avoid getting surprised?</em></div>
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I think it is important that in coming up with suggestions here, we need to weigh the relative value of using a particular solution with the potential impacts of using it. In other words, if we view predictive polling as a relativistic activity (e.g. a bit like Heisenberg’s principle in that taking a measure can influence the outcome), then we might conclude that the highest value of such predictive polls relative to possible harm might end several weeks before the election. How then could we be assured that elections are honest, that public sentiment is in fact aligned with election results? Well, that can still come through exit polling – polls taken of actual voters on election day and in addition, sentiment polls taken the day after the election of potential voters who didn’t vote (something that doesn’t typically happen now). </div>
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<em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Suggestion</em> – Place a moratorium on predictive polls at least 2 weeks prior to election day and preferably 4 weeks prior. Why would this work? Here are few potential benefits of doing it:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">This has the immediate effect of not making the election as much of a horse race and more of a contest of ideas.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It has at least the potential of driving up voter participation – a lot can happen in 4 weeks, people can vote based on their opinions and do a little less hedging in making their decisions.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It helps to combat Group-think (people swarming to the anticipated victor or becoming despondent about their own preferred candidates)</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It certainly eliminates the main source of any potential surprise.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It may encourage candidates to take a more expansive view towards courting voters, recent trends have focused way too much attention on potential swing states and districts.</li>
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As you can tell, this and potentially other suggestions may have relatively little to do with Data Science itself, but have everything to do with how we apply it to given situations. I don’t believe the technology failed us here, I think we failed to recognize how much it already influences election outcomes. In my next post in this series, I’ll talk a bit more about Get Out the Vote (GOTV), politics as demographics and how technology has been and will be used to manage campaigns.</div>
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Copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas </div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-73363314017395989912016-12-03T10:31:00.000-08:002016-12-03T10:31:32.169-08:00Technology & the 2016 Election Part 2: Voting Integrity<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
This is my second post on how the 2016 was defined not so much by flamboyant personalities but rather by the influences of technology in the election process. Today, I’m going to take a look at voting integrity, foreign influence and cyber threats.</div>
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At this very moment, election officials in Wisconsin are preparing to conduct an election recount requested by 3rd party candidate, Jill Stein. The request came after an blog post appeared written by a professor Alex Halderman who is on the board of advisors for the Verified Voting organization. In that post, Halderman stated that while there was no obvious evidence of voter fraud in the election, there were legitimate concerns regarding voting integrity based on a number of factors that have emerged from this year’s election.</div>
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So, why should we care about those concerns, isn’t just politics as usual? Good question. Here are some of the elements of this year’s election which seem a bit unusual:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Initial claims that all of the elections (and I refer to elections here because each State manages them somewhat differently, but we’ll come back that in a moment) were going to be rigged – this in itself was very strange and went so far as Trump stating he might not support the results if he lost. I can’t be sure of it, but I’m fairly certain that might be the first time in American history where a major candidate made such a statement.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Documented instances of election-related hacking by a foreign power and warnings of potential further acts from the US Intelligence Community. This accusation didn’t come from one party or another – it came from the FBI in October.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Potential interference by the same foreign power in other elections – There are indications that Russia may have also been involved in trying to influence the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom and this week, the head of German intelligence made an announcement that Russians may be prepared to launch attacks next year (with the aim of disrupting elections).</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Discrepancies in exit polling and ballot results in some locations. Only one poll out of 100’s accurately predicted the national outcome and many state level polls turned out to be wrong as well. While this in itself may be explainable due to margin of error and last minute shifts in sentiment, when take into context with the rest of what’s been happening it seems at least a little bit fishy.</li>
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It is worth noting here that when we’re talking about potential election Fraud, there is a somewhat bizarre disconnect in the US as to what election fraud actually represents. Let’s take a look at that for a moment…</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The Question of Election Fraud – The Big Picture</u></div>
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One thing that has puzzled me over the years, especially since the emergence of electronic voting, is why in the US, almost all discussion of voter fraud happens within the context of individual voter fraud. To me this is bit like saying that the only important crime that occurs is shoplifting at convenience stores while hacking into accounts and stealing billions of dollars isn’t troubling at all. Granted, petty theft is real and it is a problem, but one would have to ask does it represent a threat to our financial system? Obviously, it doesn’t. And perhaps this isn’t the best analogy ever (as there is far more petty theft than documented voter fraud on the individual level) but it helps to make the point in terms of scale and impact. We can’t see the forest for the trees here – we’ve simply been having the wrong conversation. The conversation should be about how intelligent enemies of Democracy, nation-states or terrorists could use their resources to influence or disrupt our political system by manipulating the American electoral process. And we need to keep in mind that this is not a partisan contention tied to any one election – it should be of equal importance to all sides within our political spectrum and applies to all current and future election cycles.</div>
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Another key point is the pragmatic nature of effective election manipulation. How would one of these rogue nations or organizations go about interfering in the American election process? Well, it would happen in one of the following ways (or potentially through a combination of them):</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Through infection / control of individual voting machines with malware designed to manipulate votes. <em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Moderately Effective</em></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Through infection / control of election ‘back office’ systems, designated to aggregate vote totals. Now many people may not realize but these systems have been around for quite some time (since the 1960’s). <em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Most Effective</em></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Through interception of vote totals between systems (data in transit). <em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Moderately Effective</em></li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Through manipulation of Voter Registration information systems / data. <em style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: Georgia, "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 0.975em; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Moderately Effective</em></li>
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We could also add to these the relatively intangible types of interference like those mentioned in part one of this article where I described briefly how fake news is being used to help shift voter sentiments. All of these things are hardly new (except that the technology has simply made it easier to manipulate large numbers of votes simultaneously) and have occurred in other countries before – some of them might be considered “Black Ops” and at one time were just standard features of Cold War proxy contests in the American & Soviet spheres of influence. The thing is though, back during the Cold War, these types of things happened elsewhere, not in the United States itself.</div>
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Bottom line - If someone really wanted to influence an election, they could do it in a number of meaningful ways and all of those ways involve technology at a system rather than an individual level.</div>
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This seems less about politics and more like Cyber Security, doesn’t it? In Cyber Security, the obvious question that one starts with regardless of the industry or context is this; if it is reasonable to assume that a vulnerability exists that someone, sometime, somewhere eventually could exploit – will it actually be exploited? The answer to this question is almost always yes and this has been borne out by events. While there is often a time delay between the appearance of a perceived vulnerability and the exploitation of that vulnerability, eventually the exploit does happen. Moreover, the incentive to perform an exploit is almost always directly proportional to the perceived value of the attack. What could be more valuable than changing the outcome of an American national election? Not much.</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Elections and Foreign Interference</u></div>
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One of the most fascinating aspects of this election has been the unprecedented nature of foreign involvement or intervention in the process itself. And almost as surprising perhaps is the reaction or lack of reaction among the electorate in response. Until early this year, China had been the long-time headline grabber in relation to high profile hacks in the US. This year, Russia emerged as the most publicized perpetrator of cyber incursions, but the reality is that there are a number of other nations and groups that are perhaps equally equipped to cause damage to either our political or economic systems. The identity of this moment’s headliner is much less important than the idea that we have weaknesses that any such attacker could choose to exploit. But that begs the question, what is it about our election process that makes it vulnerable. Here are a few points to consider:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">We don’t have one election process, the reality is we have 50. Worse, we don’t have an ironclad underlying set of agreed upon technical standards which are consistent across all 50 states and there is no real authority to enforce it if we did anyway. There have been some standards developed by NIST and through a series of bills passed by Congress since 2000. But adherence to the standards (which are still somewhat inadequate) is contingent upon each State’s interpretation of them.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Even within a given state, from one State administration to the next, many if not most of the rules can change depending on the political agenda of whomever is in charge.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Conflicts of interest regarding who can own and sell electronic voting related equipment have never fully been resolved.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Then there is the Electoral College, which presents unique challenges to the country and one glaring vulnerability. The vulnerability boils down to this – given the way the college works – any attacker need only manipulate votes in a handful of states by a relatively small percentage to change the overall national result. Of course, this only applies to the national election but that is our most important one. For this to work, the polls in the targeted states would have to be within the statistical margin of error (1 to 3%), but that’s not uncommon at all. As we’ve seen time and again that margins of popular votes and electoral votes aren’t always aligned so an expected outcome can appear ‘normal.’ And this is why the current recount challenges have been targeted to Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania as all three came with 1% or less margins of victory. If we added the total of the 3 states’ electoral votes it comes to 46, which conceivably if all awarded to Clinton would flip the outcome of the election. I’m not saying that will happen, but it presents an example of the point here, that 3 states can easily tip a national election one way or the other.</li>
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So, what can we do if we do wish to recognize this threat and not dismiss it as politics as usual? Here are a couple of suggestions:</div>
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<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Provide tougher standards which ought to be applied uniformly across all 50 states for voting system security.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Ensure finally that every voting machine has a paper audit (e.g. prints a paper receipt ballot).</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Regularly audit, monitor and test voting system security before during and after elections. Such audits must include random recounting of the paper trail (as opposed to an electronic recount) as well as examination of code both at the voting machine and back office level.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Give a more active role to America’s intelligence community to detect and counteract foreign threats or intrusions into our political processes. This is the real mission for which these agencies are chartered – it’s time we made election protection a national priority. </li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Block spam / fake news sites from broadcasting into the US – specifically filtering out content originating from places where such campaigns a known to happen (Eastern Europe, etc.)</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In situations where large scale breaches are detected, be prepared to redo elections as needed using paper ballots only (and provide funds to support these contingencies).</li>
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Ultimately, our form of government is only strong as the processes used to run it. Of those processes, elections are perhaps the most important single component. We can lose confidence in government but there’s always the hope of electing a better one, but if we lose confidence in voting, where does that leave us?</div>
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Copyright 2016, Stephen Lahanas</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-89036751739687036282016-12-03T10:28:00.004-08:002016-12-03T10:28:56.292-08:00How Technology Defined the 2016 Election<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; margin-bottom: 3.2rem; margin-top: 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
There have been many fascinating stories, themes and memes that have emerged from the 2016 Election, but interestingly there is a common undercurrent running through them all that’s not being publicized so well. We’ve collectively focused almost entirely on the personalities behind the election with some minimal examination of processes, demographics, strategies and perhaps even less attention paid to policy & issues. But the real story may not be the “who” but the “how.” The actual game changer in 2016 wasn’t Donald Trump the candidate – it was technology as change facilitator.</div>
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Now, many of you might remember similar assertions being made after one or both of President Obama’s victories in 2008 or 2012. Social media and Big Data were credited with helping him to generate momentum and target voters. While it is true that those technologies made a difference for Obama in those elections, they weren’t exactly game changers in the overall scheme of things. Traditional media buys still happened, conventional wisdom on polling prevailed, Get out the Vote (GOTV) still functioned as usual and of course there weren’t any concerns that Russians were trying to pull a Watergate. This year though, all of that was turned on its head; the polls failed completely, Russians were launching cyber attacks, traditional media budgets and buys didn’t determine outcomes and GOTV was abandoned by one side entirely and yet they still won. Why did all of this happen?</div>
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Technology has finally caught up with the election process in almost all aspects of that process in 2016. One side understood the implications, the other didn’t and the rest is history.</div>
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At this point, I need to provide the obligatory disclaimer that like most of you, I wasn’t pleased with either choice presented in the November election. I’m not trying to compliment or side with one group or another here. But I do think it is important for both parties as well as the American Electorate to understand what mechanisms helped to shape outcomes in this year’s election. So, let’s take a look at each of these elements in turn. We’ll start in this post with Social Media.</div>
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<u style="border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Social Media</u> – A lot was happening here and in truth it is still happening as Twitter has become the President Elect’s de facto Press Secretary. Some of us in the technology business had been positing for quite awhile that Social Media could and likely would begin to replace traditional media in terms of overall impact on the electorate so it wasn’t a complete surprise. However, when it finally happened this year it played out a little differently than we may have expected. For example, relatively few of us had taken into account the rapid and overwhelming influence of “Fake News,” on social media sites. However, to refer to all of this as fake news is perhaps a stretch, as there has been quite a lot of Advocacy journalism out there for awhile. But a certain percentage this year did fall into the totally fake news category and one might wonder if this in fact represents a form of Cyber attack or cyber warfare given the intent to change election outcomes. The reason I make the inference is due to the determination that much of this fake news was coming from Eastern Europe and may have been linked to the same Russian agenda that led to the confirmed hacks on Democratic Party servers, email accounts etc. But this is only part of the story behind the rise of Political Social Media.</div>
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Why is it that Social Media eclipsed traditional media in this year’s election? Here are some of the factors involved:</div>
<ul style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.701961); font-family: "Source Serif Pro", serif; font-size: 21px; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant-numeric: inherit; line-height: 32px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 3.2rem 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Social Media is now more used and trusted than it was even 4 years ago. Combined with smartphone mobile technology it is everywhere, all the time.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Traditional Media as we know it is beginning to submerge into a much larger and richer world of content which is being driven primarily by – you guessed it – technology. How soon will it be before Netflix or Amazon add news or information channels to the hundreds of cable & Roku channels already available. Once upon a time, we had 3 TV networks and perhaps 2 newspapers in each major city. Those days are gone forever.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Social Media is interactive and participatory – it isn’t just information consumption. While people can comment on traditional media sites, on social media ordinary people can actually drive the dialog. This is enormously powerful and it does in many ways represent a sort of technological populism. (and despite all of the recent news equating Populism with the Alt Right, Populism is not inherently Right Wing at all – in fact our entire form of government is predicated on what was in essence a Populist experiment).</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">People are tired of the art of negative advertising, at least in its 30 second format. Also, at a deeper level, when one advertises on traditional television or radio he or she is “interrupting” something (e.g. providing content we don’t want) whereas on Social Media the politics can be the entertainment in that people are directed to or served content based on their interests. The medium is the message here for real – in ways Marshall McLuhan never could have predicted.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Thus, people can tailor their media experience using Social Media based on their own comfort levels. This is perhaps the area that concerns most traditional journalists and social scientists who have complained ever since the first Mosaic browser came out that Internet content could not be trusted nor could the people viewing it. However, this does give people a feeling of empowerment they wouldn’t otherwise have. </li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Social media is a much more cost effective proposition in terms of production of content and the ability to reach interested audience. A traditional political campaign may have spent ½ or more of their budget on ad production and ad buys in the past. This is no longer required and in fact may be the biggest single blow to the flood of dark money in politics that’s ever happened – we just haven’t recognized that yet given that the person who exploited this is a billionaire supported by a lot of dark money donors. Regardless though, the door has been opened.</li>
<li style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 2.4rem 0px 2.4rem 3.2rem; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And perhaps most importantly in this election, Social Media’s focus on advocacy and dialog allowed for a much more intense debate without some of the controls that would have been in place under traditional media. People enjoy spectacle, sensation and those who are willing to focus on that over ideas or facts tend to get a lot of free attention on Social Media. While there have always been Tabloid publications out there, they were never accepted into the mainstream the way Social Media has. We see all of these factors coming together to become game changing – fake news, comfort zone filtering of content, sensationalism and the ability to not only join, but to really influence the national dialog. While we might not like some of this, it may be problematic trying to impose limits on it, so for better or worse, we need to deal with it.</li>
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I think it may be a safe prediction at this point to say that any campaign for any office going forward that doesn’t view Social Media as its primary media channel, will likely risk losing their election and will certainly experience a diminishing return on investment for dollars spent on traditional media buys. This could, at least near-term, tend to even the playing field for many candidates.</div>
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In my next post in this series, I’ll discuss the Russians, Cyber threats and voting integrity. </div>
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copyright 2016 - Stephen Lahanas</div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-29845500209573863782014-12-03T11:23:00.000-08:002014-12-03T11:23:06.349-08:00The Growing State of Cyber Insecurity<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4d4f51; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 24px; margin-bottom: 30px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
2014 will likely be marked as the year that the warnings from the past decade about Cyber threats were finally realized. Granted, not all of those warnings have come true, yet - but this year will go down as the worst yet for costly Cyber breaches. That begs an important question - why are we becoming less secure as time is passing - and why haven't the billions of dollars invested in Cyber Security worked?</div>
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This is a complex topic, so it will probably help to provide some high level context. We'll start with some definitions:</div>
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<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/article/20141121132239-13674513-security-architecture-defined?trk=mp-reader-card" rel="nofollow" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #7b539d; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Security Architecture</a> </em>- the practice of actively designing security into complex systems or environments.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Intrusion Detection</em> - the backbone for most perimeter-focused security solutions; focus is detection / prevention of breaches.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Threat / Vulnerability Management</em> - the practice of tracking and adapting to specific threat vectors (attack signatures, exploits etc.)</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Security Controls</em> - usually standards-based system &amp; process framework for assessing, securing and auditing security status.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Social Engineering</em> - the practice of using non-technical persuasion or other techniques to gain information in order to access secure environments.</li>
</ul>
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Now, let's ask the question again. Target, Chase, Sony Pictures - why is this year the year of massive security breaches? What went wrong?</div>
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There are 5 top reasons that this is happening; I'll introduce them together and then explore each one in detail later.</div>
<ol style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4d4f51; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 24px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 30px 40px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It is easier to Cyber Attack than to Cyber Defend and likely always will be.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Security is not viewed from a holistic perspective in most organizations today - this includes many military organizations.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There is no one magic bullet technique or technology that can secure an organization - yet we spend a lot of our time looking for one or thinking we have one.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Just as we secure one aspect of the enterprise, 3 new ones pop up that aren't secure - and in many cases each of these offer attack routes back through the areas we thought were secure.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Security represents an intersection between (human) behavior and information patterns. We haven't yet resolved either of these issues separately yet and we definitely aren't close to dealing with how they intersect.</li>
</ol>
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<img alt="" class="center" data-loading-tracked="true" height="455" src="https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/p/1/005/0a1/03b/2ef5cce.jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px auto 15px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="588" /><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">a representation of pattern identification in Cyber Attacks</em></div>
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So, who am I to discuss such matters? I'm not a recognized Cyber Security expert that's true. I'm just an <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/article/20141113204332-13674513-making-the-case-for-it-architecture?trk=mp-reader-card" rel="nofollow" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #7b539d; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">IT Architect</a>. But, I'm an Architect who has had the privilege of working on some fascinating Security related projects over the years; my first ones were in 1998 and 1999. In 1998, I worked on a research project for the AF to help develop a next generation Intrusion Detection system - we called it the Secure Adaptive Network Environment (SANE). As you can tell, it is was perimeter and data center focused. The second project was much more ambitious, I was brought in as a security architect (from the AF perspective) for the first iteration for GCSS-AF, which was and still is a large data center consolidation, application hosting initiative (now much of it is Cloud-based). Both of these projects helped (for me anyway) to illustrate a number of the key problems that would be associated with Cyber Security for the coming decades (although back then we didn't call it Cyber Security yet). Some of those observations included:</div>
<ul style="background-color: white; border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; color: #4d4f51; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-stretch: inherit; line-height: 24px; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: initial; margin: 0px 0px 30px 40px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The notion that the landscape was going to get ever more complex</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The need for unified access control (directory services as well as application logins etc)</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">The need for various levels network security (which was in fact already deployed in the DoD) as well as encryption across public networks</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">I saw how easy it was for dedicated enthusiasts to breach most systems they set their sights on (sat in on a few of the first 'hackathons')</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">I saw that static or reactive security was the standard operating approach behind most perimeter based security approaches and it was never going to work</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">I saw that we in the business we spending way too much time focusing on the products that were supposed to make us secure rather than understanding or controlling the holistic processes necessary for real security.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">And then there is all that log data - which was only going to grow and grow until it would become unmanageable.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It was obvious that Cyber Space would become another 'field of battle' alongside air, ground, water and space. There would be both state-sponsored and free-enterprise focused organized cyber cadres. These groups have had nearly 20 years to mature in 2014 - the future of Cyber Security was not individual hacker like Neo (from the Matrix) but Cyber crime syndicates and armies.</li>
</ul>
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Ten years after these initial security projects, things were developing pretty much the way I had anticipated. If anything, things may have developed slower than I had anticipated - in terms of the numbers or severity of the breaches happening in 2008 / 2009, but the trajectory was definitely on track. I thought the time was ripe for moving to the next stage of Cyber defense, but remarkably, I found quite a lot of resistance to the notion of taking a holistic view of Cyber Security, so I moved on to other my productive arenas.</div>
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<img alt="" class="center" data-loading-tracked="true" height="455" src="https://media.licdn.com/mpr/mpr/p/8/005/0a1/03b/39e997b.jpg" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; height: auto; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px auto 15px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="588" /><em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Example of a Cyber (Defense) Collaboration approach across organizations</em></div>
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Holistic Cyber Security is of course where things have to go and the answer to what's missing. Let's look at each of the five issues I identified above in more depth:</div>
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<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="underline" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">It's easier to attack</span>: Why should this be the case? Well, the tools that Hackers, Crackers or rogue Cyber syndicates or armies use are less expensive and less complex to use than the tools we use to defend assets. A hacker can get started with almost no investment while each component of a let's say a perimeter defense architecture may cost millions and take months to implement. Worse than that though is that attackers work as a collaborative community - which means they can collectively share information on how to defeat that new defensive technology and eventually we end up playing a reactive role - fixing vulnerabilities only after they surface. This situation is unlikely to change under current defensive paradigms.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="underline" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Piecemeal Security</span>: That's the opposite of holistic isn't it? Think about this. Every IT capability in a modern organization represents a potential threat to security. Whether we're talking about a Cloud, a mobile app, an edge device that needs to be secured, data in motion, applications (web based or otherwise), files and documents, email, portals etc.,etc.,etc. And usually all of these things are not managed by the same groups within an organization and often many of these things aren't considered as part of the security landscape at all. Most of the focus for Cyber Security in today's enterprise is still hovering around the perimeter and network. While this part of the picture is important - it is not the whole picture and never was; not in 1998, not in 2008 and certainly not now. On a recent 60 Minutes report, a famous security expert mentioned an even more telling aspect of this problem - even at the perimeter there is now so much information being generated there is no way to discern what are the real threats. We'll talk about that more in a minute.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="underline" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">There is no magic bullet</span>: This is a bad habit shared by other aspects of IT, but for Cyber Security this thinking is particularly problematic. In the late 90's and early 2000's the magic bullet was Intrusion Detection and Firewalls. Then there was PKI and host of other encryption protocols and products and of course anti-virus software has become more and more pervasive since the late 90's. Even the notion of security standards or controls has been viewed as a magic bullet, but the fact is whether it is processes, standards or products - all of these elements represent 'part' of a larger picture. That larger picture needs to begin with deliberate Security Architecture on an enterprise scale.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="underline" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Security is Dynamic</span>: Yet most security organizations and products aren't. We understood that all the back in 1998, which is why we began building community contribution of exploits into Intrusion Detection products. Collaboration on the defensive side is there, but it still isn't as effective as the collaboration on the attacking side; mainly because the job of the defenders is many times more complex. Becoming dynamic is no small task - it requires a paradigm shift in thinking for most organizations and thusfar it is very rare to see it in practice.</li>
<li style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 5px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="underline" style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration: underline; vertical-align: baseline;">Cyber Security is Information &amp; People</span>: A proactive approach to security requires the defenders think like those who might attack them and predict or identify weakness. It requires the ability to discern or predict patterns in the ever growing sets of data (just as was highlighted on 60 minutes). This simply has not happened yet. Despite some progress with Security Controls and Vulnerability / Threat Management, we are still largely operating in a reactive mode. We don't have a good handle on stopping insider attacks or understanding threat behaviors.</li>
</ol>
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In some ways, we've been lucky so far that the Cyber attacks have been primarily focused on stealing information or financial data, rather than attacks on systems dedicated to infrastructure. While many of those systems are somewhat more secure by design, they are not as secure as we might think (just as the breaches this year have called into question the efficacy of security associated with PCI standards and finance-related systems). We are becoming more Cyber Insecure because we are not as adaptive as our opponents and because we still refuse to recognize the full scope of the challenge. In many cases, we are spending perhaps exactly as much as we need to - but we're not spending it the right way or in the right context. We're paying for piecemeal security and unfortunately that's what exactly we're getting.</div>
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<em style="border: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-stretch: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; line-height: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></em></div>
Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-39619473419943626572014-09-23T16:45:00.005-07:002014-09-24T13:10:02.209-07:00The Art in Artificial Intelligence - Part 2Part of the reason we decided to explore this topic on Technovation Talks was the claim made earlier this Summer that an AI had finally passed the Turing Test. So what's the Turing Test? It was a very basically described metric by which any sort of true machine intelligence might be assessed or otherwise verified. Here's the basic premise of the test - if an AI can engage in normal conversation with multiple human participants without the humans realizing that they were conversing with a machine (obviously it would be a remote conversation of some sort) - then the machine could be considered intelligent.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcU-HsVz-w9t0uAXIDLmo_biE5DjfL6j27xsVi1Iw6pMbHwRHkCu5xQX6MqQmmNpZDEZ-B3_p2sDseC2FkeHlw4R58BLEWXU2G_tgtyz-YwN9nXywnbnXiyW8-mA_FQ7g4AaIxo3HedxY/s1600/Turing.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcU-HsVz-w9t0uAXIDLmo_biE5DjfL6j27xsVi1Iw6pMbHwRHkCu5xQX6MqQmmNpZDEZ-B3_p2sDseC2FkeHlw4R58BLEWXU2G_tgtyz-YwN9nXywnbnXiyW8-mA_FQ7g4AaIxo3HedxY/s1600/Turing.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>Alan Turing - BTW: a movie about him will be hitting theaters soon...</i></td></tr>
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According to Turing's predictions in 1950, we should have already achieved this level of machine intelligence (by the end of the last century). Yet if you look at the <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-27762088" target="_blank">story about this Summer's supposed triumph</a> (which might be considered the first time it has in fact been achieved, there are nothing but problems and doubts):<br />
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<ul>
<li>First off, the answers are screwy and it's clear that much of what the computer heard it misinterpreted. </li>
<li>Then they presented the AI as if it were an adolescent from war-torn Ukraine.</li>
<li>And they also used the lowest possible threshold to gauge success - this threshold which represented a part of Turing's paper on the subject - suggested that success be declared if on average at least 30% of humans judging the AI would be fooled into thinking it was a human. So, the AI named Eugene, scored a 33% - but that is only because judges lowered the bar thinking he was a semi-illiterate teen. </li>
</ul>
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More important than all of this of course is the central question as to whether or not the metric or test is actually an accurate way to assess machine intelligence anyway? In a way, every system that has ever tried to compete in one of these tests to date has been purpose-built to pass the test. But does that make it intelligent (if it were actually to pass it)? The technology necessary for a machine to "think" through a conversation the way a human does simply does not exist - nor are we even close to understanding what that model would even look like. The systems trying to pass the Turing Test are simply conversational "hacks," in other words they include built-in tricks like responding to a question with a question or trying to work off of keyword cues. What's missing of course is any continuity of thought - any consciousness - and even the most simplistic conversation requires that. None of these systems can think and none of them can really learn. </div>
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<div>
Now it may be that conversation hacking may become sophisticated enough in coming years so that many of these systems may actually pass the Turing Test threshold of 30% on a regular basis. But that test as it is now defined will never provide us with an accurate assessment as to whether a machine has in fact achieved some innate level of intelligence. There is no way to determine through the conversation if the system has "added value" to the topic rather than simply replied phrase by phrase in rather one-sided dialectics. It will be difficult to assess or acknowledge any growth or change. There is no expectation in a simple conversation to determine if you are in fact conversing with a self-aware entity.</div>
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_ft09X5Ppq4ObJ7teaTFSHHmBtB-TxCmQzDV4bjVt98hixv77zdNld2YLpkA88DfgXfr8qEuqDjtinA60oZypOUJij4_qChCw6Qj9TgSoKPRMPddgNE_VMt5LKKbeYu1mCkuCTQ2NSKs/s1600/her.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_ft09X5Ppq4ObJ7teaTFSHHmBtB-TxCmQzDV4bjVt98hixv77zdNld2YLpkA88DfgXfr8qEuqDjtinA60oZypOUJij4_qChCw6Qj9TgSoKPRMPddgNE_VMt5LKKbeYu1mCkuCTQ2NSKs/s1600/her.jpg" height="250" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i>In the movie Her, this guy falls in love with his operating system (and it didn't come from the Apple store!)</i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="text-align: left;">
The first thing we need to do before we tackle how we might achieve AI is to determine what the appropriate assessment or validation for human-like intelligence really needs to be. We are going to suggest one and explain the rationale for it...</div>
<br />
<b>The Technovation AI Test -</b><br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<u>AI Test Prerequisites / Expectations</u></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<ul>
<li>The Test is not meant to assess acquired knowledge per se, it is meant to assess cognitive ability. In other words, it is not about preparation or repetition of learned information, but is concerned with potential and / or application of any particular knowledge set.</li>
<li>The Test does not have to occur in one sitting, but take place over any duration (within reason).</li>
<li>The Test isn't merely concerned with correct answers or maturity in a point of time, but can also assess the ability to grow over time based upon responses to various aspects of the test (or other stimuli encountered within the time-frame of the test).</li>
<li>The Test is not merely a linguistic exercise - the machine must not merely demonstrate the ability to communicate like a human, it must also demonstrate it can learn. </li>
<li>Foremost above all else though, the machine must demonstrate the one trait most closely associated human intelligence (as opposed to raw computing power) - it must demonstrate intuition. In this context, Intuition represents shorthand problem-solving (which we will discuss in much more depth in a future post). </li>
<li>On last aspect of the test that must be included is a review of the code to ensure that "conversational snippets" are not allowed to be prep-programmed. This implies that the majority of dialog is generated 'real time' by the machine. Now, that would not prevent the machine from reviewing logs of previously generated dialog (in some database), but that review could not lead to verbatim quoting - rather must paraphrase or other restate previous points. </li>
</ul>
</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<u>The AI Test </u></blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
In a series of panel interviews, the AI must convince the judges or reviewers that it should be hired to perform a complex human role. The type of job and foundational knowledge can cover any number of topics but must be sufficiently complex to avoid "lowering the bar." (so, any job that requires a degree). Also, the interview style must be open (similar to essay tests in written assessments) - the answers must not just be correct, they must demonstrate value added insight from the intelligence conveying them. And the answers may be entirely subjective... (even better as long as the machine can rationalize them)</blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
This test necessarily implies a very high threshold - perhaps in excess of a 90% rating for a very complex set of conversations. Why raise the bar this high? Simple - this is the one way we can force the development of a system that can both learn and apply that knowledge to problem solving and do it on the fly. To have human like intelligence, machines must have the ability to understand nuances of human communication and psychology - thus it must not only be able to interact, it must be able to convince us as well. </blockquote>
Now that we have a more concrete target to aim for - how do we get there. In our next post, we'll delve into Learning - what works and what doesn't and how human and machine intelligence differ today.<br />
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<br />
<div style="background-color: white; color: #555555; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 12px; line-height: 20px; text-align: center;">
<i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></i></div>
<br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;" />
<br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;" />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 20px; text-align: justify;">#Semantech</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 20px; text-align: justify;">#StephenLahanas</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; line-height: 20px; text-align: justify;">#TechnovationTalks</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-44713901874474395632014-09-10T20:02:00.002-07:002014-09-10T20:02:46.736-07:00The "Art" in Artificial Intelligence - Part 1Today, we are going to launch a problem-solving exercise on what might be the single most complex topic in Information Science - Artificial Intelligence. The goal here is not to provide any sort of comprehensive survey of current theory or practice; rather our journey begins with the stark realization of how little we've achieved in the field since the term was first coined 58 years ago. This is a problem statement and problem resolution exercise and an excellent case study in technology focused innovation. Let's begin...<br />
<br />
We'll start at the beginning with some definitions and a review of key assumptions.<br />
<br />
<b>Artificial Intelligence, Defined </b><br />
The ability for a machine to consistently demonstrate core cognitive skills generally associated with human intelligence; including, learning, problem solving, intuitive reasoning and contextual memory retention and extraction. These skills generally imply the need to achieve some level of self-awareness.<br />
<br />
<b>What We Haven't Achieved, Yet</b><br />
I said that this problem statement is focused around a lack of success in the AI field to date; let's try to quantify that first.<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>No computer can learn like a human.</li>
<li>No computer can speak like a human (this is deceptive, tools like Siri will provide responses back to you, but is that in fact anything like human speech? The processing that goes on within Siri is a relatively primitive form of pattern recognition as opposed to what even the least capable human mind can produce).</li>
<li>No computer can handle complexity in the same manner a human can (this warrants much more explanation and we'll come back to it).</li>
<li>No computer can problem-solve the same way humans can. (there are types of problem solving where computers are of course far superior to humans, yet even with all that power they still fail to solve relatively simple questions that humans can handle naturally).</li>
<li>No computer has achieved anything coming close to consciousness or self awareness (despite the endless slew of sci-fi stories where this is a common fixture). </li>
</ul>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><i>Anybody trying to solve the AI problem is a mad scientist, right? </i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div>
Now, there's another ethical or moral side to this topic which we won't jump into until the end - the question as to whether we should even try to endow a machine with these traits - but then again it is likely that someone will do this regardless of the ethical objections. Part of the human learning process seems to require learning through our mistakes - a trait we may eventually end up passing to artificial entities, someday. But back to the problem.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Challenging Assumptions</b></div>
<div>
As with most problem spaces, the set of initial assumptions associated with it tends to drive all else until or unless those assumptions evolve in some fashion. For Artificial Intelligence, there have been a number of assumptions that have helped define what's its become to date and also help to explain its limited success - they include the following:</div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>The notion that brute force computing power will eventually resolve many issues and push through various AI barriers. This is partially true, but then again we sent Apollo to the Moon with the computing power of a standard calculator (by today's standards), how much computing power do we really need to mimic human thought? Nature got us here through elegance, not waste.</li>
<li>The notion that we fully understand how the human mind creates consciousness or exercises cognitive capability. We don't, yet.</li>
<li>The very flawed notion that machine learning can or should have any connection to the current methods we use to teach each other. </li>
<li>The lack of sensory input associated with most AI paradigms. AI is IO dependent and that usually means keyboard and mouse although images and video (and audio) have now begun to play an important role. We'll get to this in more detail later.</li>
<li>The notion that simulation can perform like the real thing; building to the simulation ensures a thing always remains a simulation (thus never achieving actual reproduction). This has some interesting implications which will eventually get us into a discussion of genetic engineering. </li>
<li>A lack of focus on natural language. This at first proved too difficult and now natural language does factor into much of the AI research going on. However, natural language hasn't been looked at as the core logic for an AI system - but it should be - instead we tend to view in terms of how an AI system (or other type of system for that matter) can interact with humans (or just capture human speech accurately). </li>
</ul>
</div>
<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZCq7_GWxbT-kzzfW6_NROaLtbYdgj6P5wnQOUv2JGadcu12b17rn6L42cgxV7xV_m9PDsPZXoV_PWCdUD8SuAJRtHYnZR1Be4fCyHMZUaz80wV1cB1YDHhNdC0ayT1OoQ8dpPCDgvysE/s1600/jeopardyWatson.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZCq7_GWxbT-kzzfW6_NROaLtbYdgj6P5wnQOUv2JGadcu12b17rn6L42cgxV7xV_m9PDsPZXoV_PWCdUD8SuAJRtHYnZR1Be4fCyHMZUaz80wV1cB1YDHhNdC0ayT1OoQ8dpPCDgvysE/s1600/jeopardyWatson.jpg" height="300" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /><i>Watson actually showed us what he/she/it was thinking - if only we could <br />have seen into the minds of the humans, then we could have seen whether they think the same way...<br /></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>A Brief Chronology of AI</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Ancient Greece - those happy go lucky philosophers in togas considered the notion of thinking machines. </li>
<li>About 150 years ago or longer - Artificial Intelligence (although not explicitly identified as such) becomes a popular topic in Science Fiction.</li>
<li>1930s - The golden age of Science Fiction novels includes more than a few stories about artificial brains and super robots.</li>
<li>1955 - The Term "Artificial Intelligence" is invented by John McCarthy and within a year the first conferences on the topic are held.</li>
<li>1968 - The Arthur C. Clarke novel 2001 becomes a box office hit and HAL, the emotionally unstable AI computer on board the Jupiter, becomes a celebrity. Take your stress pill, Dave.</li>
<li>1980 - Matthew Broderick makes it big playing games with an AI pentagon computer - the game is Thermonuclear War but of course you can't win it, right? </li>
<li>Early 80's - LISP is introduced.</li>
<li>Mid-1980's - Expert Systems become popular.</li>
<li>1984 - Skynet becomes 'self aware' and Terminators start trying to kill John Conner.</li>
<li>1987 - The pasty-faced Commander Data steals the show on Star Trek the Next Generation.</li>
<li>1990's - An IBM computer wipes the floor with the world's chess masters.</li>
<li>2001 - Stanley Kubrick's last movie becomes Stephen Spielberg's tribute to him as Joel Haley Osment becomes one of the last humans playing a robot (as opposed to CGI animations with voice actors playing humans, robots and everything else).</li>
<li>2010 - Stanford opens up an AI online course to the general public, several hundred thousand sign up - few finish the course. </li>
<li>2011 - Siri shows us that smart phones can indeed become somewhat intelligent.</li>
<li>2012 - IBM's Watson wipes the floor with the pantheon of Jeopardy champions.</li>
</ul>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i>Don't imprint unless you're serious...</i></div>
<br />
The expectations for AI have thusfar radically outstripped the progress made. Now in the same 50 or so years we've taken the Star Trek communicator & tricorder fictions and made them reality in the form of smart phones (some of which you can now load with apps that when used with sensors can measure one's vital functions much like a tricorder).<br />
<br />
A lot of smart people have tried for decades to make AI a reality and across the globe billions or hundreds of billions of dollars have been spent on related research. What's going wrong here? It can be only one of two possibilities:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Human like intelligence cannot be artificially created and maintained or</li>
<li>We've approached the problem wrong</li>
</ol>
<div>
I content that the second possibility is in fact what has happened. As we will progress with the series, it will become clear that the "Art" I referred to in the title is the ability to pick the right path for problem resolution. In part two of this series, we will examine the question; <i><b>How can machines learn</b></i>?</div>
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<br />
<br />
<br />
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></i></div>
<br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#Semantech</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#StephenLahanas</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#TechnovationTalks</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-20614411697032461062014-09-10T11:09:00.004-07:002014-09-10T11:09:49.480-07:00The Next Generation of American Leadership - JSA<div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://fundraise.jsa.org/fundraise/team?ftid=36039" target="_blank"><img src="https://c394391.ssl.cf2.rackcdn.com/1409785597.gif" /></a></div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Roboto, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Roboto, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;">A worthy cause indeed, invest in the future - support the next generation of American Leadership, right here in Ohio...</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Roboto, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: Roboto, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;" /><span style="color: #404040; font-family: Roboto, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 12.8000001907349px; line-height: 18.2000007629395px;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/A%20worthy%20cause%20indeed,%20invest%20in%20the%20future%20-%20support%20the%20next%20generation%20of%20American%20Leadership,%20right%20here%20in%20Ohio...%20%20https://fundraise.jsa.org/fundraise/team?ftid=36039" target="_blank">Junior State of America - Ohio River Valley Scholarship fund</a></span></span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-57193393250127092672014-09-06T14:59:00.002-07:002014-09-06T14:59:30.577-07:00How to Create an Enterprise Data StrategyI work as an IT Architect. One of the more interesting things I get asked to do on occasion is to create Strategies in particular technology areas. This represents the "high-level" side of the typical IT Architecture duties one tends to run into (i<i>f you're interested in more IT Architecture related topics check my new blog here - <a href="http://itarchitecturejournal.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The IT Architecture Journal</a></i>). A very popular strategic focus across industry lately is Data Strategy. In this post, I will try to explain why it has gotten so popular and some of the fundamental aspects of actually producing one.<br />
<br />
<b>Data Strategy, Defined</b><br />
Data Strategy is the collection of principles, decisions, expectations as well as specific goals and objectives in regards to how enterprise data and related data systems and services will be managed or enhanced over a specified future time period. As an actual artifact, Data Strategy is usually manifested as a document, but is not limited to that format.<br />
<br />
A Data Strategy is usually conducted in conjunction with some IT Portfolio planning process. In optimal situations, portfolio decisions and follow-on data-related projects can be mapped directly back to goals and objectives in the Data Strategy.<br />
<br />
<b>Why Data Strategy is so popula</b>r<br />
Organizations across the world have become more aware of the need for greater attention to data related issues in recent years. Some of this has been driven by collaborative industry initiatives through groups like DAMA (the <a href="http://www.dama.org/i4a/pages/index.cfm?pageid=1" target="_blank">Data Management Association</a>) and the resulting Data Management Book of Practice (DMBOK). Other drivers include the near-flood of new data technologies released over the past decade as well as the exponentially growing quantity of data out there.<br />
<br />
So, what does having a Strategy give actually give you?<br />
<br />
What it often provides, if used properly, is both a set of shared expectations as well as a clear path for actualization of those expectations. The Data Strategy allows organizations to deliberately decide how best to exploit their data and to commit to the major investments which might be necessary to support that. This, when contrasted with an hoc and decentralized technology evolution scenario presents a much easier picture to grasp. And it also at least implies a situation that will be easier to predict or otherwise manage. It is that promise of manageability that makes creating a Data Strategy so attractive. <br />
<br />
<b>Elements of a Typical Data Strategy</b><br />
The following mindmap illustrates some of the common elements that you'll find in many data strategies. One noteworthy item in this diagram is the idea of sub-strategies (which can be split off into separate documents / artifacts) ...<br />
<br />
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<br />
<br />
<b>The Top 7 Considerations for Data Strategy</b><br />
While there are many more things to keep in mind, I've tried to distill some of the most important considerations for this post...<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>The strategy should take into account all data associated with the enterprise. This may sound obvious but in fact it isn't really that obvious. Many organizations explicitly separate management of dedicated data systems from other systems which may have data in them but aren't strictly just DBMSs or reports, etc. For example, there may be state data in small data stores associated with a web-based application that supports an online form / application - the data structures supporting the completion of the form may be different than the ones which collect the completed form data. However, all data, in all applications regardless of where it may be located or how or it is used must be considered. </li>
<li>There generally needs to be an attempt to define an organizational 'lingua franca' - or a common semantic understanding of data. There are many ways this might be achieved, but it is important that this included within the strategic plan.</li>
<li>The Strategy cannot be entirely generic, even if one of the most vital objectives is some type of industry-driven standardization. Wholly generic plans are usually less than helpful.</li>
<li>The Data Strategy must be presented within a larger context. What this means is that there needs to be an expectation that the Strategy will indeed be the precursor to other activities which ought to be able to map back to it for traceability purposes. </li>
<li>The Data Strategy needs to have sufficient detail to be meaningful. If it is too high-level it becomes merely an elaborate Mission Statement. The expectation behind any Strategy or plan is that it be actionable. </li>
<li>The Data Strategy ought to be need or capability based - not product or Hype focused. </li>
<li>There ought to be a way to measure success 'built into' the Data Strategy. This can come in the form of basic service level expectations or business outcomes or both. </li>
</ol>
<br />
What goes into one Data Strategy versus another can be radically different from group to group. If you have a Social Media company your needs will be quite different than the US Coast Guard for example - but both will likely need their own Data Strategy.<br />
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<div style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: center;">
<i style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></i></div>
<br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;" />
<br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.6000003814697px; text-align: justify;" />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#Semantech</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#StephenLahanas</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#TechnovationTalks</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-37542963448573592152014-09-06T08:17:00.000-07:002014-09-06T08:17:34.497-07:00How IT Hype Inhibits Technology InnovationThere are many unique characteristics connected to the IT industry, some of them are more associated with pure-play IT vendors but others seem to pervade most all organizations which utilize IT in any significant manner. One of the strangest of these characteristics is the obsession with buzzword Hype. For most people this is symbolized through the development and dissemination of Gartner's famous Hype Cycle diagrams. However, the Hype obsession existed before the Hype Cycle ever did and doesn't explain the phenomenon in a satisfactory manner.<br />
<br />
So, what's wrong with Hype? Isn't it just a harmless offshoot of public relations or perhaps just some benign manifestation of mass psychology? Perhaps some of our readers here are old enough to remember the endless silly fads of the 1970's which included Pet Rocks and Mood Rings. Did buying these worthless trinkets in any way negatively impact our later lives - probably not. What these harmless trends did perhaps achieve though was a sort of conditioning that might have pre-disposed the vast majority of us to assign more attention to trends then they might otherwise merit.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig-QvX-ow7VmwTLh7nVtPmyK-nB2f-zKSL1xbmOCPaWC82-gzfhj6SZi-hEe5FbBlpADlSYvf6Ube7tkkEOarMihehkE0n3yVyusbFfKqo6be-Ov8oCHbD8h4bayUVPcwA66OAlIdOD-0/s1600/pet-rock.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEig-QvX-ow7VmwTLh7nVtPmyK-nB2f-zKSL1xbmOCPaWC82-gzfhj6SZi-hEe5FbBlpADlSYvf6Ube7tkkEOarMihehkE0n3yVyusbFfKqo6be-Ov8oCHbD8h4bayUVPcwA66OAlIdOD-0/s1600/pet-rock.jpg" height="246" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></i>
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Pet Rocks were definitely low tech - but represented a hype-generated trend none-the-less</span></i></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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Now without diving into the implications of psychological theory in regards to conditioning and behavior, it is does seem as though much of what we see or talk about is driven by various Hype cycles. This occurs in entertainment, in business, in food & dining - in nearly every aspect of popular culture and remarkably it also affects science and technology. What represents Buzz in the Scientific community over recent years? Well, how about the Stem Cells, The God Particle and Fractals (or Fibonacci numbers) to name a few.<br />
<br />
Getting back to Information Tech - how are we influenced by fads, trends and Buzzword Hype? Well, let's attempt a definition here first...<br />
<br />
<b>Buzzword Hype</b> - This represents a unique form of public relations wherein somewhat complex concepts are crammed into a single buzzword (although Buzzwords can technically include several words in them - Master Data Management has three, Big Data has two). While this phenomenon is not limited to IT - it is the most prevalent form of Hype in the technology arena.<br />
<br />
So, if an acronym is a mnemonic for a complex term (MDM for Master Data Management), the term itself is a mnemonic for the complex concept that everyone already understands, right? Wait a minute, perhaps we've discovered the first problem; how many people actually understand these terms? Furthermore, how many people are actually concerned with learning these terms?<br />
<br />
Let's hone in on one of the biggest Buzzword Hype examples of the last few years - Big Data (we've touched upon <a href="http://technovation-talks.blogspot.com/2012/10/the-trouble-with-big-data.html" target="_blank">this topic before in Technovation Talks</a>). How many people actually have a comprehensive knowledge of what this represents? or even have the same expectations or knowledge about it? Is Big Data just the Hadoop distributed fault tolerant file system, it is the lack of SQL and relational structure, is it the high capacity or throughput or is it some combination of these elements and much, much more. Even more importantly, is Big Data even something that can be neatly defined as one standard solution? All good questions, none of which are typically addressed in the core Hype surrounding the buzzword.<br />
<br />
The buzzword hype for Big Data seems to imply more, better, faster, bigger with very little consideration as to how that might happen or what the eventual impacts would be. The term itself becomes its own justification - if everyone is talking about doing it and beginning to do it - why shouldn't we, right? And by the way, what is it again?<br />
<br />
Let's step back a moment and try to classify what the core problems associated with the Hype Cycle are:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>These buzzwords actually drive business decisions, regardless of the level of education or understanding associated with them.</li>
<li>There is an undercurrent of peer pressure that tends to 'force' people into making those decisions - decisions they weren't ready to make (because they didn't have time to evaluate the situation properly).</li>
<li>The hype tends to drown out most other types of discussions associated either with the technology in question or the real trends of what's happening across most enterprises. And I characterize these as 'real' because they represent common challenges which aren't necessarily product-driven (thus not good candidates for hype).</li>
<li>Premature adoption based on hype cycles often has the opposite effect on a particular technology area - it stifles it as too much bad word-of-mouth feedback circulates and what might otherwise be a promising field of practice languishes as a result (E-learning is the best of example of this I can think of).</li>
</ul>
<br />
How does all of this impact or otherwise inhibit Innovation? Well, here are some things to think about:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Some Hype Trends are not in fact very innovative, yet if everyone is doing it - then folks trying to introduce truly innovative techniques or products may be drowned out or suppressed. </li>
<li>Most Hype Cycles tend to pose the key buzzword focus area as a "silver bullet" solution - as those of us who have practiced IT for a while can all attest to, there are few if any actual Silver Bullet solutions. Similar the Heisenberg Principle (and we're not referring to Breaking Bad here), introduction of a new element impacts the existing elements in unanticipated ways (well, this isn't an exact analogy to the Heisenberg Principle but it's close enough). The whole of IT might be viewed as "Magic Happens Here" by outsiders but inside we know there is a constant struggle to impose order over chaos - silver bullets are often disruptive. Yes, that's good but not if you don't understand the nature of the disruption before you go whole hog (so to speak).</li>
<li>Hype & Buzzwords tend to make people think situations are simpler than they really are, and in some senses actually discourage the necessary analysis that should be occurring when adopting new technology. Innovation cannot be sustained when and where it becomes too expensive to manage. </li>
</ul>
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We will ever escape the grip of unreasoning Hype in IT? Will our lives be forever ruled by an unrelenting cascade of product focused buzzwords? Who knows - IT is still in its infancy and unlike most other professions we have the opportunity to reinvent ourselves on an almost continual basis - so anything is possible.<br />
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<i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></i></div>
<br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" />
<br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#Semantech</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#StephenLahanas</span><br />
<span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#TechnovationTalks</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-73986150132856894352014-08-18T12:51:00.000-07:002014-08-18T12:51:16.974-07:00The Innovation DilemmaInnovation is perhaps today’s ultimate buzzword and most over-hyped topic. People can’t seem to get enough of articles and dialog on how Innovation is the answer to any number of potential issues – yet in all the countless discussions occurring online and in print about this topic, how well do any of the folks discussing innovation really understand it? That’s part one of the dilemma. Part two of the dilemma is that for all the lip service about how Innovation needs to be fostered, are we actually in fact fostering it in any meaningful ways (or perhaps worse yet, might we in fact be hindering it through current trends)? We will examine both parts of this question in today’s post.<br />
<br />
Let’s start by helping to define what Innovation actually represents in a meaningful context. We’ll begin this by explaining first what innovation is not; it is not:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>A marketing slogan</li>
<li>A collection of admirable ideas awaiting exploitation</li>
<li>The province of rarefied genius or Silicon Valley risk takers</li>
<li>Accidental or otherwise random in nature </li>
<li>And lastly – Innovation is not thought (e.g. Innovative Thinking) – thought without application perhaps qualifies as day-dreaming. Innovation is Actionable Thought embedded within the context of a larger problem solving activity. </li>
</ul>
<br />
Innovation is a process, not an individual event. That process has a ‘macro’ or Global perspective as well as a Local perspective. In other words, the Global process of Innovation encompasses all of the Local processes – the smaller efforts impact the cumulative achievements at the Global level. There is also often synergistic inter-relationships between various local innovation “threads.” <br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">An example of a complex Innovation process</td></tr>
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<b>Definitions (Innovation in Theory):</b><br />
<i>Innovation</i> – This represents the deliberate (reproducible, consistent) process associated with solving specific problems. The process is evolutionary, incremental and focused on specific, well-defined goals. The key concept here is that Innovation is not an anomalous or ephemeral activity; it is most definitely not “magic happens here.” <br />
<br />
<i>Local Innovation</i> – Any individual application of an innovation process within a closed community/entity. This does not imply that the community or entity is somehow cut off from the global community, merely that it has its own a unique charter.<br />
<br />
<i>Global Innovation</i> – Any number of local communities may be working to solve the same problems. These problems can be referred to as innovation threads. The level of collaboration or cooperation will vary between these communities, yet on the whole there is usually some information exchange that at times will allow individual local innovation to influence or otherwise contribute to global innovation progress (and conversely, progress acknowledged at the Global will of course any number of Local efforts).<br />
<br />
<i>Innovation Threads</i> – An Innovation thread is the collective effort towards resolving a unique problem. Obviously, there are cases where one group defines a similar problem somewhat differently, but in general the progress made in one variation of a particular thread may be applicable to another similar one.<br />
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<b>Innovation in Practice</b><br />
<br />
One of the best examples of what differentiates innovation in popular mythology with Innovation in practice is the case of the Wright Brothers. Their story is not one of a handful of good ideas punctuated by the glorious realization of their dreams of flight, but rather the many years of tireless work and massive amount of invention that had to occur in order to achieve a specific goal associated with one very famous problem – “how to achieve powered flight.”<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMD-OZqsw5wHr-O_bKipPi1U6RCL4wRLmmpNBK-SyRCKI6S39VsM9vKwPqld05Y9WXdB8Ii67Pb9EVCNSxC9pERNWQ00YkFGG8o5mLQqsdlYmw-Z5KdWKh6odbzl7navTTlKsYlwDhIag/s1600/10328969.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMD-OZqsw5wHr-O_bKipPi1U6RCL4wRLmmpNBK-SyRCKI6S39VsM9vKwPqld05Y9WXdB8Ii67Pb9EVCNSxC9pERNWQ00YkFGG8o5mLQqsdlYmw-Z5KdWKh6odbzl7navTTlKsYlwDhIag/s1600/10328969.jpg" height="301" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The Wright B Flyer</td></tr>
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The Wright Brothers didn’t just look at a bird and shout “Eureka.” They redefined the science of aerodynamics, testing hundreds of airfoil designs. To do this they had to redefine the mathematics of aerodynamics, they had to invent the wind tunnel and more. In short, they had to solve 100’s of related problems in order to resolve the main problem that started their quest. Theirs was an example of local innovation – however it was so profound that it completely redefined the Global scope of innovation for aerodynamics. And we still fly in planes based entirely their designs and principles today.<br />
<br />
Another important characteristic of what the Wright Brothers did was its entirely practical focus. Everything they did was goal-focused. This differentiates it from many research and development programs that have arisen over the past 50 to 75 tears in that oftentimes research programs do not have specific, tangible goals in mind. (in other words, they are not entirely pragmatic in nature).<br />
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<b>Dilemma 2</b><br />
Now that we might have a better idea of what Innovation actually represents, let’s consider whether we as a society are actually encouraging or discouraging it. To do that we need to consider a couple of related questions, including:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Can innovation be taught, and if so how would that happen?</li>
<li>What sort of incentives might help to spur innovation?</li>
<li>What might represent disincentives for innovation?</li>
</ol>
<br />
<br />
We will answer these questions one at a time…<br />
<br />
<i><u>Can Innovation be Taught?</u></i><br />
Yes, it can (and we will explore that topic in more detail in a future post). But is our current expectation of what represents education that fosters innovation accurate – well, no. In our previous example of practical innovation (The Wright Brothers), the main idea was that the entire exercise was problem focused. What they learned, invented and achieved was all focused on a central goal. The vast majority of education today is in contrast not goal-focused. Moreover, it tends to be highly standardized and this trend is getting worse every year. There are some exceptions of course, but for the main part our educational systems today judge students based upon conformity of thought as evidenced through an ever-expanding list of assessment tests. This shift towards assessment testing has a chilling over-all effect on curriculum, making it more and more abstract and less focused on systematic problem-solving. In the United States, we are now teaching almost entirely to the test.<br />
<br />
The way most experts have framed education that might somehow foster innovation is by decrying that more education ought to include science and math education (STEM). So, remarkably all of the focus towards achieving more innovation has been directed at what is being taught as opposed to how it is being taught. There is an obvious flaw in this logic that is borne out in almost every field of practical application. This is a massive and complex topic and we are of course just skimming the surface.<br />
<br />
<i><u>What sort of Incentives might encourage Innovation?</u></i><br />
Well, this might include incentives both within education and in industry. Incentives within Education might include rewarding problem-solving skills in terms of assessment or college admission and structuring curriculum to encourage development of problem solving skills. These types of skills are in some ways diametrically opposed to the type of assessment testing which is currently so popular now. The idea is of course, is being able to question rather than mimic current thinking in order to develop the types of new perspectives needed to progress beyond current capabilities.<br />
<br />
In industry, many assessments are more or less natural – in other words – solutions that effectively solve problems become popular and profitable. However, many such solutions can’t get funding to reach this point – so one area that can be improved is the access to capital (both in the government and private sectors, and for the federal sector R & D can become entirely problem focused rather than random).<br />
<br />
<u><i>What things tend to discourage Innovation?</i></u><br />
<br />
A misdirected educational system, as discussed already, represents a serious discouragement towards fostering education, but it is not the only problem. Other issues include:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>A misguided dilution of labor incentives. This sounds a little complex but what it means is that since about the year 2000, a two-tier technology labor scenario has arisen in the United States. The introduction of temporary Visas based upon the mistaken notion that there was a technology labor shortage has in fact displaced several million technology workers here and resulted in the introduction of millions of IT workers who get paid roughly half of what the standard wage would otherwise be. Add this to off-shoring, and what we have created an environment of uncertainty in area where we should be fostering confidence in terms of securing a large, stable technology workforce. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Within individual organizations, despite the hype that seems to imply otherwise, risk-taking and divergent solution approaches are most often discouraged. For organizations to become innovative there generally needs to be some cultural transformation – this is very difficult to achieve. </li>
</ul>
The goal with this post was to help refine the dialog about innovation a bit – get beyond the platitudes and start discussing how it can or should work. We will revisit this topic again in coming months…<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
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<br />
<i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></i><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#Semantech</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#StephenLahanas</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#TechnovationTalks</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-29727394855280986292014-08-08T14:51:00.001-07:002014-08-08T14:51:07.398-07:00Building Effective IT Strategy - part 3In our last two post on IT Strategy, we highlighted how Strategy can be structured, how it differs fro Tactics (although we will explore that in more depth in this post) and how to employ a consistent process towards developing strategy. The first two steps involved determining what the core strategic approach might be; the second focused on goal-setting. The third and most difficult part is assigning actions to goals...<br />
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So, using our Big Data case study, how would begin to translate the higher level goals into definitive actions and then what types of tactics might be used to carry out those actions?<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4ErxJcGQxamjoSIPbTPUXQF8DFe7d0sku2RD5jaHxhqJjtjpvvkMXelzvJ5wx4HDKGnpZu1CmZhian3j2IVbY9h-rSK7qSiJRuRnw05cY9w2WNQzlEiZgtqy0lLWMxvgxEq7pqqneyVo/s1600/TransformationStrategy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4ErxJcGQxamjoSIPbTPUXQF8DFe7d0sku2RD5jaHxhqJjtjpvvkMXelzvJ5wx4HDKGnpZu1CmZhian3j2IVbY9h-rSK7qSiJRuRnw05cY9w2WNQzlEiZgtqy0lLWMxvgxEq7pqqneyVo/s1600/TransformationStrategy.jpg" height="466" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>This illustration highlights where Big Data fits within a larger set of Strategic elements in an overall Transformation initiative. This type of representation helps to define relationships, dependencies and quantifies where work needs to happen once the higher level goal-setting has been defined. </i><br />
<br />
The types of actions that might be involved with actualizing a Big Data Strategy might include the following:<br />
<br />
<div>
<ul>
<li>Creation of a team or center of excellence to manage the technology / project</li>
<li>Definition and Deployment of a proof of concept </li>
<li>Acquisition of the raw data intended for use in the Big Data solution (so let's say this is for an energy company it might include SmartGrid sensor information).</li>
<li>Acquisition and / or development of the Big Data Platform</li>
</ul>
</div>
<div>
All of these possible actions of course imply a number of key decisions that must be made; the following are a few examples of those;</div>
<ul>
<li>Determination of Big Data technology to use (triple store, key value etc.)</li>
<li>Determination / selection of a Big Data solution hardware platform</li>
<li>Determination of modeling or data profiling approach</li>
<li>Choice of BI platform for data visualization</li>
</ul>
<br />
All of this information is going to be necessary in order to complete detailed roadmaps and ensure accurate estimates for those who manage the IT portfolio process in any given organization. Actions can then begin to be translated into milestones with traceable costs. Those Action-Milestones are then mapped specifically to goals/objectives previously identified in the higher level strategy.<br />
<br />
Now, how does action to goal alignment involve Tactics? In the case we've introduced and in most others, the tactics involve the core tools for decision-making. So, for all of the decisions listed above, individual analyses of alternatives might be conducted. For product decisions, run-offs / competitions / evaluations and source selection processes are applied. For design considerations, an architecture approach is applied. All of these activities can also fit within a lifecycle process - all of this represents Tactics. Why? because, we could use roughly the same lifecycle approaches for any type of technology - whether it is UAV development, Quantum Computing or building a SharePoint portal. It is the interchangeable actualization toolset for all strategy.<br />
<br />
The hardest part of aligning Strategy, sub-strategies and tactics is when you find yourself in a very large transformation effort (one perhaps dealing with 100's of systems, dozens of technologies and perhaps thousands of people). There is no single solution, tool or approach for managing that - it represents what mathematicians often refer to as a unsolvable problem (NP Hard). We will look at IT Transformation and intense complexity in an upcoming post.<br />
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<i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></i><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#Semantech</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#StephenLahanas</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#TechnovationTalks</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-9204375876572597702014-08-07T11:18:00.002-07:002014-08-07T11:18:24.514-07:00Building Effective IT Strategy - part 2In yesterday's post, I introduced three elementary categories for IT Strategy:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Product </li>
<li>Portfolio</li>
<li>Transformation</li>
</ol>
<br />
I then pointed out that each of these follows a basic cycle of:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Determination of Strategic Approach</li>
<li>Goal-Setting</li>
<li>Assigning actions to goals</li>
</ol>
<br />
So, now as promised, I will use this to take a look at a specific scenario. But before we begin, let me mention an important caveat to the three categories listed above. While all strategy tends to fit within these, not all strategy has to exist at the highest level. In other words, there are various levels of Strategy that are still abstract enough to remain differentiated from Tactics.<br />
<br />
In this case study example, we are going to look at Big Data. Big Data is something that many organizations might consider important enough and large enough to develop a strategy around. However, just looking at the moniker "Big Data" and one might instantly wonder - well, doesn't that belong as part of a larger "Data Strategy." Yes. And then wouldn't that also imply that the Data Strategy would be part of a larger Strategy. Again the answer is yes - and in this case the whole thing lines up neatly like this:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>Portfolio Strategy</li>
<ul>
<li> Data Strategy</li>
<ul>
<li>Big Data Strategy</li>
</ul>
</ul>
</ul>
<br />
So, this begs the questions, just how we might first differentiate the lower level strategy from higher level strategy and then perhaps even more importantly, how do you ensure they stay in alignment?<br />
<br />
<b>Differentiation:</b><br />
This tends to be managed something like this - you begin at the top level with the superstructure of where everything is supposed to fit as well as common capability / design principles and objectives. Then as you move down the Strategy levels, things progress from conceptual expectations to logical descriptions. The top level is the most open or flexible; the bottom level the closest to expectations regarding solution execution.<br />
<br />
<b>Reconciliation:</b><br />
Side by side with the differentiation activity is integrated road-mapping - each level below fitting neatly into the one above. The other big component here is alignment of Strategy with Architecture which provides the other key reconciliation tool (if used properly).<br />
<br />
So, how would a Big Data Strategy fit into an Enterprise Data Strategy? First, it obviously in most cases extends something that already exists. This then implies either replacement of existing capability or addition of new ones. Now let's jump back to the process we mentioned earlier - Step 1 - assigning portfolio strategy is complete. How would we attack goal-setting for Big Data?<br />
<br />
This by the way, is where perhaps more than half of the organizations trying to adopt Big Data solutions are getting tripped up right now. A poor example of goal-setting would be - "let's do a POC without a clear path of how to exploit this technology yet" (mainly because everyone else seems to be doing it. A better approach might be:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Define the set of possible Use Cases associated with your organization (where Big Data might make an impact)</li>
<li>Choose one or two that can be effectively demonstrated and measured - let's say one might be the rapid development of a user driven BI solution based on unstructured (web/social media) data. </li>
<li>Develop a clear path as to how; a) the initial capability could be rolled into the larger existing ecosystem to avoid silos or solution-fracking and b) add new functionality to the emerging Big Data solution - consistent with overarching organizational goals. </li>
</ol>
<br />
Step 3 is assigning actions to goals. We'll take a look at that in our next post...<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZkwc-ogAa_wzqTjFzSHRzP6EdvKpKBegi3LISrWFPFwajcJorOGEQiU1buBfbXIiZLZw6X4_sWJiasddMZ-dmcne5OJTTHJ8amIUvdCG8iFbGkYMsBHHXfmP2pdUnJYjD49Owgsk28Q8/s1600/big-data.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZkwc-ogAa_wzqTjFzSHRzP6EdvKpKBegi3LISrWFPFwajcJorOGEQiU1buBfbXIiZLZw6X4_sWJiasddMZ-dmcne5OJTTHJ8amIUvdCG8iFbGkYMsBHHXfmP2pdUnJYjD49Owgsk28Q8/s1600/big-data.jpg" height="273" width="400" /></a></div>
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<i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></i><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#Semantech</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#StephenLahanas</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#TechnovationTalks</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3366724949645342422.post-83184849115574508362014-08-06T07:53:00.000-07:002014-08-06T07:53:01.070-07:00Building Effective IT Strategy - part 1Every great endeavor begins with a strategy, well that may be true but was it an idea, a single spoken command, a drawing on a napkin? How do we quantify precisely what Strategy represents?<br />
<br />
In military history, Strategy is the highest level of planning - the combination of complex goal-setting and the definition of an over-arching approach designed to achieve said goals. In the American Civil War, A. Lincoln decided early on that the North must cut the Confederacy in two by taking the Mississippi river and to stifle commerce using a massive naval blockade. This strategy was even given a name - the Anaconda Plan. The rest of what happened in the war was mainly tactical in nature - so in the case of the military analogy, Tactics are the detailed actions necessary to fulfill elements of the larger Strategy.<br />
<br />
The interesting aspect associated with Tactics is that they tend to be "reusable components." In other words, you develop tactics that can be used regardless of the Strategy of that may employ them. This metaphor translates well from the military analogy over into real-world IT.<br />
<br />
Lucky for us, the world of IT isn't much like war except in the sense that there is quite a lot of chaos and a need for planning to manage complex situations. Let's try then to define IT Strategy...<br />
<br />
IT Strategy is the <i><u>ongoing</u></i> effort to guide organizational exploitation of technology over a multi-year period. It is ongoing because in IT (which is hopefully not the case for war) there is no definitive end-state goal. In other the words, the end state is always moving to right, reflecting the evolution that has already occurred as well as the oncoming waves of newer disruptive technologies.<br />
<br />
That's the high level view, but IT has its own unique spin on Strategy which makes it possibly more divergent from the war analogy. In IT there are several distinct types of Strategy; these include:<br />
<br />
<ol>
<li>Product Strategy - Focused (perhaps analogous to a Theater strategy in war)</li>
<li>Portfolio Strategy (otherwise referred to as Capability Strategy) - Comprehensive</li>
<li>Integration / Transformation Strategy - This is not just focused on solution integration - it is the larger question of how to redefine and reconcile an entire portfolio </li>
</ol>
<div>
Depending on the organization in question, they might require only one or perhaps all of these types of strategy at any given time. A software company (one that is solely focused on one software product let's say) would definitely want to use the first type of Strategy to help define their product roadmap, but might not need the other two. </div>
<br />
<br />
So, step 1 is determining what type of Strategy is required. Step 2, regardless of the strategy category is a goal-setting exercise. Step 3 is assigning goals to action. In our next post, we will use a Case Study to look at Steps 2 and 3 in more detail.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_W1Dbu7c6EYhqn7XC5bm21INB6a9e42eWyxBRiLgTFOSvDb7aYjbNDHDrJYK3cTLW6xmmT0KWseAPKRGs9gNpc8xMj2AjyiKJbGQz998-LQNmq3-grErp2rbf-9M1mgDqydfEextN8o0/s1600/business.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_W1Dbu7c6EYhqn7XC5bm21INB6a9e42eWyxBRiLgTFOSvDb7aYjbNDHDrJYK3cTLW6xmmT0KWseAPKRGs9gNpc8xMj2AjyiKJbGQz998-LQNmq3-grErp2rbf-9M1mgDqydfEextN8o0/s1600/business.jpg" height="492" width="640" /></a></div>
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<i>Policy in the context of IT Strategy generally represents tactical guidance given on an organizational level - this tends to fall under either Portfolio or Transformation Strategy (or both)</i><br />
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<i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></i>
<i style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;">Copyright 2014, Stephen Lahanas</span></i><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#Semantech</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#StephenLahanas</span><br style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19.600000381469727px; text-align: justify;" /><span style="background-color: #fafafa; color: #333333; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue Light', HelveticaNeue-Light, 'Helvetica Neue', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: xx-small; text-align: justify;">#TechnovationTalks</span>Anonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08345445031813356956noreply@blogger.com0